High school graduates eagerly eye skilled trade jobs as AI reshapes job market

Careers in skilled repair, construction and technical trades are looking rosier to recent high school graduates as generative artificial intelligence takes over entry-level office tasks.

Workforce experts interviewed by The Washington Times said recent signs of surging interest in blue-collar jobs are just what the economy needs as new technology reduces the number of white-collar careers requiring a college degree.

“As AI keeps on automating many white-collar jobs, the demand for skilled tradespeople keeps growing,” said Roger Wakefield, a Texas master plumber who teaches his trade on YouTube. “This recent shift also offers young individuals stable career paths without the burden of student debt. You can get paid from day one while you learn the exact skills of your profession.”

According to Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce, nearly a third of annual job openings through 2031 will require some credentials but no college degree.

In a survey of 3,057 seventh- to 12th-graders released Tuesday, the nonprofit American Student Assistance found that 45% said a two- or four-year college is their “most likely” next step, down from 78% in 2018.

Another 37% said they are considering trade or technical schools, apprenticeships and technical boot camp programs, up from 11% in 2018.

“We need to change the way we help young people navigate the complex and evolving landscape of education and career options,” said Julie Lammers, executive vice president of the Boston-based career and education counseling group. “Starting in middle school, our young people need early access to opportunities that empower them to explore careers that match their interests and strengths.”

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center estimated last month that 52,961 more students earned short-term microcredentials for skilled trades in 2023-24 than the year before, pushing the total to a 10-year high of 525,215.

By contrast, the tally of four-year bachelor’s degrees granted in 2023-24 dropped by 24,631 to 1.9 million, the lowest level since 2015-16. The count of two-year associate’s degrees awarded declined by 7,862 to 821,445, a 10-year low.

Economists say AI tools such as ChatGPT and AskROI have added to the trend by assuming many junior customer service, content writing, graphic design and data entry tasks that college graduates once performed. This has prompted more young people who came of age before the AI revolution to consider a trade instead.

“For example, prior to AI, entry-level sales representatives would typically spend a lot of time evaluating potential leads and crafting customized sales messages,” said Siri Terjesen, an economist and associate dean at public Florida Atlantic University. “AI can perform a lot of these tasks, thus focusing sales representatives on higher-order tasks.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that the fastest-growing occupations are wind turbine service technicians, who earned more than $62,000 a year on average in 2024, followed by solar photovoltaic installers, who made more than $51,000 annually.

According to Resume Genius, the top-paying jobs that required only a high school diploma and short-term certification in 2024 included elevator technicians earning an average of $102,420 per year and railroad workers pulling in $73,580.

Nathan Soto, a Resume Genius career expert, noted that wind technicians earn a starting annual salary of about $62,000 to maintain turbines at heights of 200 feet or more. He said technicians can push that to $100,000 a year after brief technical training at a community college or vocational school.

“Clearly, the losers of this trend are the millions of college graduates saddled with half a lifetime of debt whose fields are being made obsolete by AI,” Mr. Soto said. “Keep them in your thoughts.”

Skilled tradesmen like electricians, plumbers, HVAC technicians, commercial drivers and construction workers earn $45,000 to $60,000 a year, which increases as they improve skills and acquire certifications.

“Moreover, these jobs are not subject to outsourcing or automation,” said Eric Kingsley, a California-based employment attorney.

While workers with college degrees earn more on average over their lifetimes than high school graduates, the gap has narrowed in recent years. Entry-level positions for college graduates with degrees in anthropology, performing arts, social services and foreign languages currently pay around $40,000 a year.

According to a November report from American Student Assistance, roughly 2 million Americans without a college degree earn more than $100,000 a year, including nearly 1 in 5 who make more than the average university graduate.

“They include firefighters, electrical power line installers and repairers, commercial divers, telecommunications line installers and repairers, aircraft mechanics and service technicians, captains, mates, and pilots of water vessels, millwrights, emergency medical technicians, paramedics, and control and valve installers and repairers,” said Judy Goldstein, ASA’s senior vice president for marketing and communications. “Landing one of these jobs can make a life-changing difference.”

She said workers in top blue-collar fields are two-thirds more likely than others to have health insurance, twice as likely to go on to earn a college degree and 75% less likely to lose their jobs to automation.

Keith Spencer, a career expert at the resume-building website Resume Now, said many young people would be wiser to acquire trade skills than a college degree.