How Badenoch could go for a bold shadow cabinet reshuffle

Kemi Badenoch is reshuffling her shadow cabinet later today – and rumour is rife about who could, or should, be in line for elevation.

A plan that has been weeks in the making, one figure from LOTO tells ConHome that we “may be surprised” with the new moves, while another adds to “be ready”.

Certain Tory MPs have been clamouring for a reshuffle for quite some time now. It was only a few months after appointing the shadow cabinet that comments were being made about the work, or, according to some, the lack thereof, when it comes to certain shadow cabinet ministers.

What was originally “meant to be small”, one senior party figure tells me – where “they were going to do most of it in September” – now has the potential not just to be a shuffling of the deckchairs, but pulling some interesting faces around the shadow cabinet table.

One option available to her is to “go bold”, as one former cabinet minister puts it, and “inject some life and energy” into her party.

In other words, it is time to bring in new, fresh faces. That could include the 2024 intake of MPs who are untarnished by the actions of previous Tory governments, alongside more seasoned MPs who never found themselves in a ministerial role or quite made it to the top of their departments.

Of those who already have a shadow ministerial role, names that often come up as deserving a lift include Matt Vickers, Neil O’Brien and Gareth Davies. From the new intake the most mentioned names are Katie Lam, Harriet Cross, Nick Timothy and Lincoln Jopp.

“You need to make the reshuffle worthwhile for it to deliver a shift and change in approach,” one MP tells me. Another adds: “Looking to those figures would make a strong start”.

They think it would go some way to make the new intake – who have been carrying much of the heavy load of grunt work – feel like they are working towards something. It does, however, risk creating tensions, not only within the 2024 group, but with older MPs who feel like they have been passed over for someone who has been in Parliament just over a year. As one MP makes clear: “It could cause a lot of internal problems.”

There are two shadow cabinet ministers “convinced” that Cross will see a promotion of some sort. While another Tory source adds of the two former spads in the 2024 group: “I think they will find a way to give something more substantial to Lam and Timothy.”

But already an older MP expresses their frustration: “Is the solution to our problems really to immediately promote the former spads? That whole spadocracy thing hasn’t worked before, why would it again.”

The question MPs have is over whether it is going to be a “meaningful reshuffle” rather than a limited shuffling of the deckchairs. In conversations to discuss jobs, Badenoch has referred to it as “a refresh”.

It seems most likely that Badenoch is bringing in some experienced hands, especially including people who weren’t associated with her leadership campaign. Other than Ed Argar, Victoria Atkins and Robert Jenrick himself, most were with her the evening before the Tory leadership election results – and it is felt she should send a message with who she brings in next.

Former home secretary James Cleverly has been convinced to make a return to the front bench in a prominent role, while another former cabinet minister is also set to be taking on a new job and coming off the backbenches. Rumours are that Kevin Hollinrake could be heading to party chair, as one MP says “to give it some gusto”, with Cleverly perhaps taking over in his role opposite Angela Rayner.

What reassures some is disappointing to others, however. “I would have thought creating a new guard would be more exciting than bringing back the old,” one MP says.

Some current shadow cabinet ministers have been insistent that Badenoch has not been after a “proactive shuffle” and are keen to point out that people have actually only been in place for about nine months, not a full year – and now have policy commissions in their briefs that they want to see through.

Often, however, it is the ones that don’t want a reshuffle who seem closest to the top of the list of people who should be shuffled out.

Still the shadow Leader of the House role comes up in who could make that more political. Joy Morrissey has filled in occasionally when Jesse Norman has been away, with Matt Vickers and Paul Holmes mentioned as potential options to inject energy into the chamber.

Gareth Bacon as shadow secretary of state for transport continues to spark ire, with one shadow minister saying “they will never get rid of him because of his relationship with Kemi, and he is enjoying it too much – even if it doesn’t show in the work produced”.

Although people were pleased with how Whately handled welfare, both Neil O’Brien (of Badenoch’s own 2017 intake and a former supporter of hers, who eventually backed Jenrick in the leadership) and Katie Lam (a former Home Office spad and member of the 2024 intake) have been spoken of within the wider party as potential contenders for the DWP brief.

Lam is also floated by some as an option for shadow chief secretary to the treasury (most of the Tory MPs can’t remember who that currently is), as is Gareth Davies who is currently shadow financial secretary and was a treasury minister in the last government. 

But for those hopeful that Jenrick may be moved to shadow chancellor, where one MP says “he would irritate Reeves so much”, it seems on the more unlikely side. I understand that Loto is split over whether or not to bring him in closer, but Jenrick insists he is happy where he is, while Loto aren’t looking to move Stride yet.

There are rumours amongst Tory MPs about Claire Coutinho potentially moving into the health brief – where one senior Tory says “she would be a great fit” – and talk of Julia Lopez swapping from Badenoch’s PPS to take on her own shadow secretary of state job, with another expected vacancy – as multiple shadow cabinet members tell me the shadow culture job is likely to become available. If Coutinho were to take on health, it would leave energy available, potentially for Andrew Bowie to take on permanently after covering for her on maternity leave, and free up Scotland for someone new like Harriet Cross, the 2024 intake MP for Gordon and Buchan who seems to have cut through in the chamber. 

Whatever Badenoch chooses to do with ministerial roles, she is still left with a problem, according to many of her MPs, in that there is a reshuffle she won’t do – one within her own Leader of the Opposition’s Office (Loto).

Multiple members of the shadow cabinet tell me Loto “behave like they are still in government” and are “trapped acting like they are their own department”, while those in the new intake – if they have met anyone from Loto at all – express how they find dealing with them “too slow” and ask “why does it take so long to clear anything through?”.

Lord Francis Maude is rumoured to be coming back in a CCHQ-facing role, which could make a strong start. But for someone who values loyalty so highly, looking at Loto may be a harder shuffle for Badenoch to contemplate.