Huw Davies: The Welsh Tories just lost our first MS to Reform UK – and our leader must take responsibility

Huw Davies is a political commentator and former voluntary Conservative Party official and activist within South Wales.

The Welsh Conservatives have now entered their endgame. The defection of Laura Anne Jones to Reform UK has confirmed that their demise as the main party of the Right in Wales is complete.

All that is needed to finalise this drastic realignment (all forewarned, I might add) is the Senedd election next May, where the electorate will surely send them into the pits of oblivion.

This defection reveals an interesting insight into the inner workings of the Welsh Conservative Senedd group, one of which showed their pure naïvety. The reaction of Senedd members to the news was one of shock and awe, yet it wasn’t at all surprising to those on the outside, including rank-and-file members.

Jones was a prime candidate for defection; one of her ex-staffers is currently working for Reform UK in London, and her political leanings within the Tory Senedd group had been to its right.

There was also another reason too, which is perhaps the most pertinent: her chances of getting re-elected as a Conservative under the new electoral system were getting thinner by the day. Naturally, you might think, she would look at the greener grass on the other side with Reform leading opinion polls in Wales.

It is, therefore, even more surprising that the reaction of the Senedd group to Jones’ defection has been visceral anger. Their general attitude has made them look incredibly rattled, and a couple of them have been very personal in their attacks, firing out allegations over her laziness and controversies over leaked WhatsApp messages (they all stood by her beforehand, so whining about them now is a bit rich).

They did not just see it coming. Yet for the reasons stated she would have been at the top of my list. Even parts of the Welsh media were blindsided by it, more focused on unfounded rumours, over many months, that Andrew RT Davies might be defecting instead (something which he has denied on numerous occasions).

Which brings me to the current leader, Darren Millar, the man who I’m afraid is not delivering the goods for the Welsh Conservatives. In fact, he is making the situation worse.

Every single defection from the Party in Wales has happened under his watch. He has manufactured a war on its membership and its base over devolution and working with the separatists, Plaid Cymru. All of which was avoidable, and yet he went gung-ho, like a bull in china shop, with no mandate.

If Millar wants to pull it back, and now it will be purely for survival purposes, there is one thing he can do which might just save a bridgehead of Senedd members next year. The only thing which could cut through the noise and create some traction is to come out backing scrapping the Senedd.

But Millar has foolishly killed any hope of that strategy by fully backing devolution and opening the idea of propping up a separatist government; as such, he and his colleagues are now at the mercy of a uninterested electorate.

Looking at the situation, you may conclude that Jones is perhaps wise in her decision to leave. But be in no doubt, Millar could have prevented this implosion if he had been bold and went outside his comfort zone. It is as much his fault, as it is the Conservative Party’s for its inability to adapt to the current political environment.

Devoscepticism is the only viable route in this current climate, especially with the national picture looks bleak. The short-sighted nature of the Senedd leadership is deliberately holding back the Welsh Tories for reasons of pride and a total disregard for political reality.

No one internally nor externally is buying the line that there will be a Welsh Conservative government come next year, it is just not credible. Our leadership is stuck in a time loop between 1975 to 2010; Francis Fukuyama’s ‘last men’, clinging to the end of history that never was. They do not understand the great international realignment on the Right of which they are a small cog within a wider fast-moving machine.

Let Jones’ defection be a lesson to Millar that it is unwise to take your base for granted and be outflanked to your right. I wonder if members of the Senedd group are regretting bringing down RT Davies last year; since he’s been gone the collapse of the Welsh Conservatives has been frighteningly quick.

Will history mark this defection as the beginning of the end for the Welsh Tores? Not quite – more like the end of the beginning, with a few more dreary chapters before the final reckoning.