Recent victories in the off-year elections has the Democratic Party’s leader feeling smug.
“I never want to hear again that the Democratic Party has a problem with young men,” Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chair Ken Martin said at a press conference, according to Politico. “We’re going to keep working hard to keep them in our camp and our coalition, for sure, but we won across the board with every major constituency that left our party last year, and that should tell you something again, that the Democratic Party is back.” (RELATED: As Grocery Prices Remain High, Democrats See Opening And Plan To Spend Eight Figures Wooing Certain Demographics)
Martin reportedly attributed young people’s enthusiasm for the Democratic Party to economic disillusionment, “a sentiment that he thinks voters largely attribute to the Trump administration,” according to Politico.
Martin’s hypothesis has some holes. Is it really likely that swathes of formerly pro-Trump young men were champing at the bit for … Abigail Spanberger?
If democrats want to win over young men – particularly white men – they need to stop actively hating them, demeaning them, and putting up roadblocks (affirmative action, DEI, sensitivity trainings) in the path of their success. It’s not about “the tone.” pic.twitter.com/sC08ubJdAd
— FischerKing (@FischerKing64) May 26, 2025
A more plausible scenario: The young men who voted in the off-year elections aren’t the exact same young men who voted in last year’s presidential election.
Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the New York City mayoral race is not a bellwether for national sentiment. (RELATED: Five Times Zohran Mamdani Created A Headline For All The Wrong Reasons)
Among white men aged 18 to 29, Mamdani won 62% of the vote, according to NBC’s exit polls. Among non-college graduate white men, Mamdani won 20% of the vote. Among Republicans, Mamdani won 4% of the vote. Among the 11% of people who consider themselves “part of MAGA,” Mamdani reportedly won 8% of the vote. (I suspect that some Mamdani voters just thought it would be funny to pretend to be part of MAGA.)
“As recently as 2016, more than half of young men (51 percent) identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party. By 2023, less than four in ten (39 percent) young men identified as Democrats.” @dcoxpolls pic.twitter.com/M2Rua98AUK
— Richard V. Reeves (@RichardvReeves) July 16, 2024
Mamdani did capture 44% of the independent vote, but in New York City, being an independent is more often a signal of distaste for the moderate elements within the Democratic Party.
Granted, Mamdani’s social media communication was strong. Far stronger than his opponents, and far stronger than the older Democrats who triumphed in Virginia and New Jersey (Gov.-elect Spanberger and Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill, respectively).
All that to say, I wouldn’t count on young men to usher in a blue wave come 2028.
Follow Natalie Sandoval on X: @NatSandovalDC
