Illegal Immigrant population down 1.6 million under Trump crackdown

President Trump is booting out illegal immigrants faster than President Biden added them, according to the latest Census Bureau numbers, which show an unprecedented drop in the number of immigrants living in the U.S.

The total number of foreign-born people dropped by 2.2 million from January to July, and most of that — 1.6 million — was among the illegal immigrant population, said Steven A. Camarota, the research director at the Center for Immigration Studies who crunched the numbers.

It’s an almost unfathomable turnaround from the Biden years, when illegal immigrants surged into the U.S. at record rates, netting about 120,000 new people each month.

Over the past six months, though, the illegal immigrant population has been dropping at nearly 270,000 a month, or more than twice the rate of increase under Mr. Biden.

“The best evidence we have is that the illegal population is now falling at a rate that even exceeds the massive growth that we had in Biden’s four years,” Mr. Camarota said.

The decline coincides with a massive effort by the Trump administration, which is increasing formal arrests and deportations and has invested heavily in machinery to try to encourage illegal immigrants to leave on their own.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said last week that foreign leaders in the hemisphere tell her they are seeing a wave of people arriving in their countries after having left the U.S.

“Over and over again, I’m hearing that hundreds of thousands of their citizens are coming home, voluntarily,” she said.

The new data comes from the Current Population Survey, a monthly Census Bureau report that is used to produce data such as the monthly unemployment figures. One of its questions prods respondents to reveal where they were born, which produces the overall immigration number.

In January, it stood at 53.3 million, an all-time high in sheer number and as a percentage of the total population.

Last month, it dipped below 51.1 million.

Using other assumptions, Mr. Camarota is able to estimate the illegal immigrant population from the CPS data. He figures that rose from 10.2 million at the start of the Biden years to 15.8 million in January, before tumbling to 14.2 million now.

Not all the illegal immigrants went home. Some are part of the normal churn of migration, such as gaining legal status or dying. That was true for the Biden years as well.

Mr. Camarota said most of those who left were likely newcomers from the Biden years or were otherwise less rooted in the U.S., and thus it was easier to pick up and leave.

That could presage diminishing returns for Mr. Trump’s enforcement push.

The implications of the drop are massive.

Mr. Camarota said the total U.S. population could decline this year, for the first time since the 1930s.

The natural net increase from births is about 500,000. If the U.S. has already shed more than 2 million people, that would easily swamp the births.

Mr. Camarota said the decline gives communities breathing space after the increases of the Biden years.

“It’s likely that this represents a savings in money for the taxpayer,” he said. “It will take pressure off schools and hospitals and other services. It’s likely it will potentially create job opportunities for Americans.”

Immigrant rights groups say the downside to a drop is that businesses will lose part of their workforce.

Indeed, farmers and hospitality groups have been flooding the Trump administration with complaints that they can’t get workers to show up anymore amid the high-profile wave of immigration arrests.

Mr. Trump has repeatedly floated some form of leniency for illegal immigrants who work in those areas of the economy, though he has yet to deliver any concrete policy change.

Mr. Camarota said there may be good reason to wait.

He said there is no evidence from the numbers that the employment of the U.S.-born has fallen. Indeed, the data suggests it has surged in recent months, which could mean people who have struggled to hold jobs are now gaining them.

“That doesn’t mean bad economic news, necessarily,” he said. “It probably means per capita GDP has gone up.”

The CPS data does come with some caveats.

It’s possible that the foreign-born, illegal immigrants in particular, are now lying and claiming to be U.S.-born legal residents. Mr. Camarota said that’s not likely.