INGERSOLL: Trump Trying To Cash Out On Biggest Gamble Of March Madness Season

Below is State of the Day, a morning newsletter by Daily Caller Editor-at-Large Geoff Ingersoll. Sign up here.

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Greetings, Dear Reader,

Today is one of those where there’s so much going on to write about and so little time to actually do it.

Look forward to future pieces about radical feminism and also about why basically nobody should be allowed to vote.

Until I get time to do those, however, here is …

THE BIG GAMBLE

One way you can hedge on the side that Israel almost certainly dragged us into a conflict (one which I personally happen to be somewhat hawkish/bullish on) versus Trump dragging them, as he said later, is that none of this will be immediately beneficial for Trump or the Republicans.

I personally believe there is a huge potential upside for Americans and America Firsters if Washington exerts absolute control over the two primary global shipping lanes, to say nothing of moderating Venezuela, Cuba and Iran, but I digress. (There is also, as we know, potential for disaster when shooting finally starts, and it has indeed started.)

That all could take a few years to be fully appreciated. That’s also a post for another time (when there’s time).

Trump doesn’t really have years. The midterms are on the horizon. The CEO of United Airlines just said he expected American oil to hit $175 a barrel and they’re already planning to restrict certain flights.

The immediacy facing Trump is America’s 250th occurring under a self-applied yoke unlike anything ever seen in those 250 years.

Trump needs to win and he needs to win fast.

Now some Polymarket watchers have noticed some odd bets.

For those of you who don’t know what Polymarket is, it’s a gambling app that allows users to bet straight up yes or no on real world events. Will a SCOTUS justice resign this year? Yes or no.

The issue with places like Polymarket (and its competitor Kalshi) is it allows for literal distortions in reality. Speech writers for top public officials can engineer outcomes like “Will Donald Trump say low IQ” and then use cut outs to place bets.

In fact, the Trump administration has already (allegedly) caught at least one insider using classified intelligence to wager on these platforms.

And now it looks like there might be more insider trading. Polymarket wallets that made the oddly specific bet on the war popping off before Feb. 28 are now pegging the end of hostilities for March 31/April 15.

It’s possible that these are just good reality hedgers guessing on an outcome. It could even be probable. Trump’s big gamble on striking Iran has some quantifiable and immediate economic fallout that he’d want to avoid in an election year.

He also sees the polls. People want quick wins. They also don’t want to pay $30 for a pack of hot dogs on America’s 250th.

So Trump has all the motivation in the world and bettors on outcomes have all the open source evidence in the world.

It is a bit of a sign of things to come, however, Dear Reader.

I don’t mean Trump necessarily ending a war. I think he is likely to do just that in the shortest order possible.

The pervasiveness of online gambling as a reality distortion machine is at least as much of a threat to our way of life as Global Thermonuclear War.

How long before pitchers and batters are flubbing just one or two pitches and swings to make a little extra dough for their friends? Trick question, it’s already happening.

When it seeps into the policymaking arena, things get much worse than a perversion of our greatest American pastime.

War is already a racket, we all know this. But turning it into an easily accessible wager on outcomes, particularly the outcome of peace, that’s a new level of perversion.

Who might be the bettors on the other side of this outcome? Where are they? In the White House or the Pentagon? 

One would hope not, but unlike baseball, there are actual lives at stake.

MORE LINKS

‘Monitoring The Situation’ Bar Defeats The Entire Purpose Of Bars

Speaking of Polymarket…

Trump Says US Negotiating With Iran, Postpones Power Plant Strikes

And speaking of the war potentially coming to a close.

Margaret Brennan Asks Dem Rep Why He Keeps Defending Shutdown After Pointing Out It Hurts His Own Voters

Play political games, win stupid prizes.