James Cartlidge: Iran is a threat to the UK but we won’t defend ourselves with ambition and unfunded promises

James Cartlidge is Shadow Defence Secretary, and MP for South Suffolk

One of the truly nightmarish prospects that has haunted international politics for years has been the idea of Iran with a fully functioning nuclear weapons programme, with operational warheads and effective means of delivery. But if a nuclear armed Iran is out of the question for ourselves and our allies, for Israel it is a truly existential threat.

Of course, I have no direct access to the intelligence that our allies will have relied upon to prepare their major bombing mission over the weekend. But put simply, and as Kemi Badenoch has repeatedly and unequivocally stated, Iran cannot be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. That’s why I said last Wednesday that “if the US, together with the Israelis, take the view that the intelligence means the only way to stop it [the Iranian nuclear programme] is to take decisive military action, then that’s something we would not, in principle, be opposed to. We do recognise the scale of the threat”.

Inevitably, any military action carries risk.

Nevertheless, there is no risk-free path in dealing with an outcome like Iran obtaining a nuclear bomb. Doing nothing carries risk as well. For Israel, the risk of doing nothing may be greatest; but for us, it is not hypothetical.

HMS Diamond, one of our Type 45 destroyers, was directly targeted by Houthi drones and more sophisticated ballistic missiles in the Red Sea – along with the international shipping the Royal Navy was sent to help protect. These weapons would have been supplied by Iran. This was a serious clear and present danger to our own Naval crews, with Iran waging war by proxy, via the terrorists it flagrantly sponsors.

It may be that the bombing of Iran this weekend sees a return of such proxy attacks on western interests. But it is the very fact that Iran is prepared to supply lethal, and increasingly sophisticated munitions, to terrorists which makes the prospect of it becoming a nuclear armed puppeteer to its proxies an outcome to be avoided – even if that means military action and its unavoidable associated risks.

Consensus on matters of national security is always best.

In his statement responding to the US raids on Iran, the Prime Minister described Iran’s nuclear programme as “a grave threat to international security”. Defence Secretary John Healey stated that “the US has taken action to alleviate the grave threat that Iran poses to global security”.  Nevertheless, consensus on the Iranian threat does not obviate the need for accountability, and from the point of view of HM Opposition, there are some important questions at stake.

John Healey went on to say: “the safety of UK personnel and bases is my top priority. Force protection is at its highest level and we deployed additional jets this week”. This is sensible and welcome – but on Friday we had an extremely serious security breach at Brize Norton, one of our most important RAF bases.

Added to this expensive and shocking sabotage on our own soil, a man allegedly linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has been arrested on suspicion of ‘espionage and terrorism’ offences in Cyprus. With RAF Akrotiri on Cyprus our most important airbase for operations in the Middle East, this all underlines why we need reassurance from Ministers that they are urgently tightening security at all our bases, home and abroad.

Finally, what of our own military preparedness?

At this week’s NATO summit, Keir Starmer may well announce some distant aspiration to achieve 3.5 per cent or even 5 per cent GDP expenditure on defence. However, the fear is this will be via the kind of smoke and mirrors we’ve already seen Labour use to claim they will be  spending ‘2.6 per cent on defence’ by 2027, when the reality is without adding existing intelligence funding onto the MoD budget they would likely be spending below their original promise of 2.5 per cent.

Above all, Labour is rearming far too slowly.

The SDR and linked Defence Industrial Strategy were promised for ‘the spring’ – but the former was published in the summer and the latter is months away. Labour’s promises in the SDR are not only unfunded but, from expansion of the regular army and reserves, to introduction of major new capabilities, they don’t deliver until well into the 2030s.

So what would we do differently?

We’ve been clear on the need to go to 3 per cent GDP on Defence this Parliament, not the next. In Armed Forces week, recognising the ongoing challenge of retention, we would urge the Government to abandon plans to reopen legacy investigations of Northern Ireland veterans – which would surely chill recruitment.

We would also scrap the Government’s £30 billion Chagos surrender and instead invest the money saved in our own armed forces, e.g. by buying drones and anti-drone kit for the Army, so that it can rapidly train in the new ways of fighting.

In a more warlike world, we need to support our allies – and back our own armed forces in parallel.