James Elles: Defending the continent of Europe is a common responsibility

James Elles is a former member of the European Parliament.

Current US strikes against Iran come on top of recent action in Venezuela and expressed intentions about the takeover of Greenland. All underline US determination through the untrammelled use of power to achieve its aims. How are European countries to react to these events?

The publication of the US National Security Strategy last December gives us a clear idea of the direction of US policy in the years ahead (see Bob Seely in ConHome 12 December).

The Strategy reaffirms US support for NATO and collective security (Art 5) but conditions this to Europe shouldering the bulk of its conventional defence – implying a massive shift from burden-sharing to burden-shifting.

To put it bluntly, seismic changes are underway. NATO has guaranteed our common defence reliably since the 1950’s. But now the United States is increasingly prioritising strategic competition with China over European security concerns.

This is a fundamental shift in transatlantic relations, likely to be permanent, requiring Europeans to develop independent military capabilities whilst maintaining NATO’s operational framework.

This would already be a huge task to undertake in normal times, but we are living in exceptional circumstances with a major war in Ukraine which shows no signs of ending any time soon.

The outlook is sombre. Many in European military circles fear that Russia is preparing to wage war on Europe by 2030, if not before, testified by the recent bellicose statements from President Putin – a terrifying prospect.

These issues were vigorously debated at a recent event in London organised by the Ideas Network 2030 (IN2030) and the Wilfried Martens Centre (WMC) “Defending the Continent: A Common Responsibility”

The following actions were proposed for Europe to take:

• Establishing strategic enablers: Europe must develop independent capabilities in satellite communications, long-range transport, and in-flight refuelling, as these functions have historically been provided by the United States but were now essential for autonomous European operations.
• Investing in defence industrial capacity: The priority is to shift European defence industries “from peacetime inefficiency to wartime productivity”, expanding ammunition production, coordinating procurement, and standardising equipment across nations to eliminate wasteful duplication.
• Developing rapid reaction forces: Europe requires “high-readiness, multinational rapid reaction forces” deployable within days to any threatened location, trained under common doctrine and capable of operating independently of immediate American support.

Creating a European Security Council: Speakers advocated a new institutional framework operating on majority voting principles, which could serve as “a bridge to the United Kingdom” and integrate non-EU members including Norway and potentially Ukraine into continental defence planning.

What have European countries so far done? While the challenge of building European defence capacity is substantial, continued dependence on potentially unavailable American reinforcement poses unacceptable risks to European security. For European countries, it is a race against time.

Increasing expenditure on military budgets.

Last summer, NATO reaffirmed its collective defence clause (Art5) and agreed to a 5 per cent target for defence expenditure by 2035.

While few European countries today spend 4 per cent (Poland), Germany is making strides to build its military power allocating large sums for investment e.g. in infrastructure. Under current plans, Germany will reach the NATO target by 2029, having then a defence budget greater than the UK and France combined.

The EU is also stepping up in providing financial aid, removing operational obstacles and facilitating military mobility, providing up to E150 billion in loans to Member States under the Security Action For Europe (SAFE).  Last autumn, it agreed a defence readiness roadmap for 2030.

More people involved in the military.

NATO’s commitment to deploy “80,000 troops” along an “800-kilometre” defence line as part of the peace settlement in Ukraine raises questions about mobilising personnel and upgrading facilities that had been sold off or repurposed since the end of the Cold War. Member countries are committed to increase troop numbers, Germany planning to increase from 182000 to 260000 by 2035 (compared with 73000 in the UK today).

Other options are now being implemented across Europe e.g. the introduction of conscription in France announced by President Macron last autumn. The new military service will allow young people to volunteer for 10 months military training – 3000 in the first year, rising to 50000 annually by 2035. Germany has introduced a new military law that requires mandatory registration for young men for potential conscription.

Enhancing civil resilience.

Improving protection of critical infrastructure, securing energy grids and data systems, and countering hostile disinformation narratives, Nordic countries are exemplars of effective civil preparedness.

What of the UK?

Alarmingly, the Labour Party shows little sign of taking the action urgently required. Focussed on domestic issues, the November budget made no reference as to how the 5 per cent NATO defence spending target will be met. The UK Government is doing too little to prepare the British people for the security challenges ahead. Many at the meeting felt that Britain remains “five or six years behind where we should be” in preparing citizens for contemporary security challenges”.

Given that continued US support for NATO depends on Europe stepping up, what needs to happen?

First, an urgent reappraisal on spending priorities for our country’s defence. There has to be a definite shift in budget allocations from welfare to warfare. Why not reach the NATO target by 2030, emulating the German example?

Second, with so much money available, why not join the SAFE programme providing urgently needed funds for UK defence businesses?

Third, prepare Britain for the reintroduction of voluntary military service.