James Ford is a political columnist for City AM and a former adviser to the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson.
Westminster gossip has, inevitably, turned once again to the thorny issue of a possible electoral pact between the Conservatives and Reform. The press have published stories that Nigel Farage is rolling the pitch with Reform donors and the idea is so credible that hapless Prime Minister Keir Starmer has sort to shoot it down as “unholy alliance of austerity and failure.”
The issue divides opinion in both parties, often vociferously. A formal election pact is, for many Conservative and Reform activists alike, not just unthinkable but a red line that would prompt splits and resignations. But, whilst Tories and Faragists disagree over many things, one thing both parties would agree on is that the UK would be much better off if this incompetent Labour government were ejected from office as soon as possible. I think many Tories would agree that a Reform government is preferable to a second Labour term and, hopefully, Reform supporters would admit (however reluctantly) that a Conservative return to office is better than Starmer et al clinging to the levers of power for another five years.
Despite its profound unpopularity, there are three ways that Labour can stay in office: if the political right is evenly divided between the Conservatives and Reform, if the left-wing alternatives to Labour continue to fracture and multiply, and if the nation embraces tactical voting to a much greater extent than it has previously in order to keep Reform out of office. (A recent PLMR/Electoral Calculus poll estimated that tactical voting could cost Reform 78 seats at the next election – enough to make the difference between a working majority and a minority government). Therefore, to guarantee that Labour will be booted from office, the Tories need to accept three unpalatable truths: that the success of Zack Polanski’s Greens is in our best interests, that middle-of-the-road voters need to come to peace with the idea of a Farage government (or, at least, not be unduly scared by the prospect), and that we Conservatives may eventually need to do a deal with Reform.
Whilst we can probably all agree that, with the next general election still a possible three-and-a-half years away, no pact needs to be agreed yet. Conveniently, there is a simple, straightforward and politically painless way to road test any possible alliance between the two parties before 2029. Nobody needs to stand down any candidates that have invested time working seats. The capital’s election map does not need to be carved up by squabbling strategists into ‘theirs’ and ‘ours’. There would be no shared manifesto of awkward, unconvincing compromises, and no need for a power-sharing arrangement post-election. All that is needed is for Conservatives to lend their second preference votes to the Reform candidate for Mayor, and for Reform to do the same in support of the Conservative candidate. It doesn’t cost either party anything, but it strengthens both parties’ chances of taking control of City Hall.
And, ironically, we can thank the second-rate Labour political brains inside Number 10 Downing Street for creating this opportunity. Earlier this year, in a desperate bid to gerrymander the next London mayoral elections, Labour decided to reintroduce supplementary voting for London mayoral elections. The thinking has always been that this voting system makes it harder for the Conservatives to win in London, which is probably why the last government decided that mayoral elections should be first past the post.
The Conservative nightmare scenario for London has always been that a Labour candidate could become mayor based on second preference votes, even if the Conservatives had effectively won the popular vote on first preferences. But, perversely, supplementary voting could provide the best method of defenestrating Sadiq Khan from City Hall in 2028. Trading second preferences would hand whichever of the two parties ended up in the ‘final two’ (almost certainly against the Labour candidate) a significant boost. The latest polling by Freshwater Strategy for City AM found that whilst 34 per cent of Londoners would vote Labour in the next City Hall elections, a deal on second preference votes could give the right-of-centre alternative 41 per cent (with the Conservatives on 28 per cent and Reform adding 13 per cent).
A separate question on the poll found that 60 per cent of Londoners thought that Sadiq Khan should not run for another term, and 40 per cent of voters in the capital would consider voting for Zack Polanksi – which suggests that Sadiq Khan might not even make it into the elections’ second round and that a Conservative/Reform deal might be necessary to keep the Green Party Leader from taking the top job in London politics!
A simple, limited electoral deal in London would strengthen both Reform and the Conservatives’ prospects. It need not set a precedent for the general election and, rather than trading bruising blows against each other during the campaign, it would allow both parties to direct their fire at London’s real foe: Sadiq Khan. I acknowledge that any deal with Reform is contentious – heretical even – for many in the Conservative Party, but (at the risk of mixing multiple metaphors) I urge party colleagues to pinch their nose, screw their courage to the sticking place, and take a leap of faith. Taking back control of the capital after 12 years is surely a political prize worth the risk.
