John Oxley: Labour in office is turning on itself at historic speed – Conservatives must exploit it

John Oxley is a consultant, writer, and broadcaster. His SubStack is Joxley Writes.

Sir Keir Starmer has a party management problem. As we head towards the next reading of the government’s welfare reforms, the Prime Minister is struggling to keep control of his own party.

An amendment giving MPs the chance to block cuts to disability and sickness-related benefits has now attracted the support of more than a quarter of Labour MPs; the government looks set to either swerve into another U-turn or face an embarrassing defeat. Neither would look good for the prime minister.

Even worse, however, seems to be the government and whips’ approach to this issue.

It has become so public because private efforts have failed to mollify the rebels. Indeed, Starmer’s approach has been more belligerent than conciliatory: rumours abound that he has threatened to remove the whip and even deselect MPs who vote against the government.

This is the nuclear option – and one that not only points to the failure to win over hearts and minds, but highlights a larger issue within Labour.

Governments will always have points where they clash with their own MPs. On our side of politics, we remember the battles on both sides of the Brexit divide, which culminated in the expulsion of 21 MPs, and the implicit threat that more would come. But reaching this stage so early, on this scale, and over this issue points to real trouble for the Labour leadership. How that plays out could be one of the defining themes of this parliament.

Usually, new governments can rely on a lot of goodwill from backbenchers, especially ones with majorities this big. New MPs are generally pleased with the leaders who got them there. They are ambitious to get noticed, and not fully enmeshed in networks where dissent can spread and organise.

All of this makes them unwilling to take a risk, while more established MPs have been rewarded with government jobs that make rebelling costly. Most of all, they are all happy simply to be in power.

This has not happened for the current Labour government. Many are dissatisfied with the course it has charted, especially when it comes to benefits and spending. As Tories, we are of course unhappy with many of Rachel Reeves’ decisions. But they have not satisfied those behind her either.

Through winter fuel, the benefit cap and the two-child limit, and these restrictions on benefits, Labour MPs who see their role as using taxpayer money to fix poverty are unhappy with these cuts. Many of them came of age, politically, opposing austerity. They rankle at feeling like they are running another round of it. The normal joy at being in power is replaced with a sense of “is this really what we are doing?”.

The prime minister and his teams’ instincts seem to have worsened this. They have reached for the toughest levers and inflamed tensions. This has made something clear to the rebels: their best power comes in numbers. A rebellion of this size struggles to be cowed by threats. Removing the whip from a quarter of the party is just absurd, and they know that. It becomes a bluff to be called, and a gambit you resent rather than respect.

Even if Labour manages to stave off a rebellion next week, the ill will is likely to linger. Starmer is in a difficult position for party politics: he is neither pleasing his own side nor being rewarded with success in the polls. For many Labour MPs, the coming term looks like four more years of eating the dirt, without much of a payoff.

It is the circumstances that make MPs more likely to flex their strength, either in the hope it helps them to buck a trend or out of principled fatalism. Furthermore, once an MP has rebelled once, they get more comfortable doing it.

This is unlikely to accelerate as far as deposing Starmer. They don’t really have the numbers, or the mechanisms. It will, however, curtail his actions. The government is going to be more wary about cuts, especially those around benefits; it will make the pursuit of fiscal discipline harder. There will be more internal pressure from Labour to raise taxes.

Other issues, too, will see cohesion fall apart a little. Governments always become harder to control over time, but this one seems to be on a speed run of rebellion.

For the Conservatives, this presents some opportunities. On a tactical level, we have already seized the moment, with a stinging offer to help the government out in exchange for further concessions. Strategically, it gives us an angle to set ourselves apart. If Labour’s own party won’t stomach cuts, it can remind voters of their profligacy. If it pushes them to raise taxes, this will serve us even better.

It also helps continue our theme of differentiation from Reform. Farage’s outfit remains beholden to gravity-defying economic policies which tend towards unfunded cuts in taxation. Their latest approach, the non-dom friendly “Britannia Card”, was roundly attacked by experts as a £34 billion giveaway to the global rich.

Only the Conservatives have historically been prepared to rally behind an economy that aligns public services with what the country can afford, making tough decisions on both sides of the balance sheet.

These divisions give the Conservatives a bruise on the Labour arm to punch. Heightening these divisions will help us. We can start to push Labour back towards admitting that they are the party of higher spending and higher taxes, while we formulate policies fit for the reality of governing Britain into the 2030s; force them to tie themselves in knots and stress the realities of the same old Labour government, and that only the Conservatives can offer a pragmatic alternative that goes beyond unfunded giveaways.

Few things should hearten an opposition like a divided government. Internal dissent on this scale should hand us an advantage. It slows down government progress, but also means Starmer and his team will be forced to spend more time talking to the left than voters on their right flank. That these splits have become so public, so big, and so early in their term does not bode well for Labour. The question remains whether the Tories can be the one to profit.

None of this will matter unless the Conservatives are ready to seize the moment. Labour’s troubles offer an opening, not a guarantee. To capitalise, we need more than smirks at their missteps; we need to show clarity, discipline, and ambition ourselves. The public won’t flock to a party that merely points at failure, especially if we don’t acknowledge our own missteps over 14 years in power. They need to see a credible alternative, forged in realism and delivered with confidence.

Watching Labour tie itself up might be fun, but it only leads to success if we seize it. A year in, it is early to get this opportunity. The party needs to grasp it.