Joseph Eve: Starmer is sleepwalking into the AI revolution

Joseph Eve is a Parliamentary Researcher at the House of Commons.

It’s clear that we’re heading towards some kind of AI revolution.

Those who don’t already use ChatGPT to speed up their day job either can’t use the internet or are in denial. Such a paradigm shift can’t help but invoke the metamorphosis of the 1980s which saw Britain move from an industrial to a services based economy, unleashing years of prosperity and creating 1.6 million jobs; all under the premiership of one Margaret Thatcher.

Artificial Intelligence now threatens many of those very jobs. White collar employees may well be this century’s miners, fighting for their right to send emails. HR and communications layoffs will be the proverbial canaries, signalling that a wider technological revolution is coming. It will surely be felt acutely in Britain when services constitute 80 per cent of this countries GVA. Combine this with record high industrial energy prices and inheritance taxes on farmers finishing off any primary industry and the picture looks even more bleak.

In the run up to last year’s election, Sir Keir actually praised Thatcher for effecting “meaningful change”; a clear attempt to cajole Tory voters. Then on gaining office there were further echoes when he promised to slash the thickets of red tape; a pledge on which he has grossly underdelivered, instead slapping businesses with regulation and taxation.

In keeping with his inconsistency, Starmer took down a painting of Thatcher in Number 10 shortly after moving in and yet, given the circumstances, he would do well to remember the Iron Lady’s legacy. Thatcher saw that wholesale change was inevitable and used government to unlock enterprise through deregulation and help this process on its way. Starmer on the other hand, lacks vision or conviction and as such the pain may be more intense.

The recent unemployment statistics, up to their highest level since the Covid Pandemic, support this. Particularly worrying was the age range in which the majority of these layoffs occurred. For the 24-34 age range, pay-rolled employees have fallen by 104,000 since Labour came to office, with similarly negative trends for 18–24 year-olds.

The only cohorts where employment increased were those mid-career and above: the last ones on the ladder before it is pulled up. We know that Labour’s anti-growth policies are largely to blame, but it begs the question as to whether stumbling Starmer is making an inevitable process even worse?

By increasing Employer National Insurance in the Autumn Budget, Starmer’s government may inadvertently have encouraged companies across the country to cut the positions they never truly needed. Similarly, the lowering of NI registration thresholds, making it more costly to pay a junior employee, will dissuade employers from taking on new employees who they won’t need in the future. Not to mention the Employment Rights Bill that will simply serve to protect those already in employment whilst disincentivising taking on young talent. Is it not possible that these anti-business policies have given some companies the cover they need to stop hiring and start firing?

Young people like me are crying out for a leader who can offer a roadmap through these gloomy times. We are not seeing the mysterious ‘jobs of the future’, no matter how much the Government bangs on about them, neither are we seeing the ‘green jobs’ in which we presumably take turns blowing on wind turbines. Just like the Government it seems, we have no idea what the jobs of the future will be. The only way to find out is to unlock the free market and let entrepreneurialism thrive.

Yes, there will be jobs created in AI in the short term, but in the long run these companies will exist to speed up processes and cut out middlemen. And yes, those with hindsight will have studied degrees in Artificial Intelligence and will deservedly make a lot of cash in the future as a result. But not everyone can work in AI.

If painful change is inevitable, then the best thing a Labour Government could do is present a direction of travel and speed up the process. But even on the supply side Labour have been slow to introduce a regulatory framework for AI companies which would give them the long-term certainty to invest.

Whereas Thatcher saw the writing on the wall and stood firmly on a free-market policy platform that created the commuter belt ‘Essex Man’, Starmer instead seems to be sleepwalking towards the inevitable and offering no alternative. Many will find themselves pushed towards state employment, which will take the longest to adopt the very technology they keep banging on about- the NHS is still using pagers.

With no vision from Government, few opportunities and mountains of student debt for redundant degrees, it’s no surprise that more than half of young people have considered leaving the UK under Labour. This is to say nothing of record low housebuilding pushing up prices, DEI quotas for graduate schemes and mass immigration increasing demand for just about everything. All of this has created a new lost generation.

This country is crying out for a Thatcher-like leader that can lead us through this paradigm shift; Keir Starmer is plainly not it. Any leader that acknowledges the harsh realities of the AI revolution and offers a way through it, may not be the one many want but is certainly the one we need.