Local Election Live Blog: Tremors from last night suggest today’s results could see an earthquake

Harry Phibbs writes

So is our Party over? Is the Conservative Party, founded in 1834, having shown so much resilience and so many triumphs, facing its demise? Or will the local elections merely be “disappointing” with “some people making a protest.” “Pro bono publico, no bloody panico,” as dear old Rear-Admiral Sir Morgan Morgan-Giles, Tory MP for Winchester, used to say.

Most of the votes are being counted today. Reform UK’s by-election victory in Runcorn and Helsby by just six votes is the big news from last night. The council elections will see the focus switch to Reform UK versus the Conservatives. But contrary to expectations it may well be Labour that has most to worry about.

We are waiting for the great majority of results but the tremors from last night’s declarations suggest that today’s results really could see a political earthquake. That the “duopoly” that has already been broken up in the opinion polls will be shown to have done so in real life as people deliver their verdict via the ballot box. It does not follow that the Conservatives are finished.

Northumberland has been the first council to declare its full results. It continues to be under no overall control with the Conservatives as the largest Party with 26 councillors, a loss of nine. Reform UK are just behind with 23. Labour have just eight councillors – a loss of 12 on last time. Just remember that “last time” was 2021. Peak Boris Johnson. The same night that Labour lost the Hartlepool by-election and Sir Keir Starmer considered resigning. Labour has fallen back. The gap between Labour and Conservatives in the council chamber in Northumberland has widened.

Staffordshire has counted about half its results. It looks very likely that Reform UK will have an overall majority. That would mean they are doing even better than the Electoral Calculus polling indicated. A very interesting result – though far more interesting will be what they do in power. So far, they are on 24 and the Conservatives on only six with nothing for anyone else. There are new boundaries which complicate matters. But last time Labour only got four seats, losing six. Will they be wiped out this time? What will the county’s Labour MPs make of it?

We have a few results from Hertfordshire. The Conservatives are on six. Reform UK are on two – both gained from the Conservatives.

We also have some Mayoral results. Ros Jones was re-elected as the Labour Mayor of Doncaster – but much more narrowly than last time. Labour also held the Mayoralty in North Tyneside, again by a much tighter margin. Labour also held the West of England mayoralty – with just a quarter of the vote share, compared to a third of the vote share last time.

Then, as expected, we had Dame Andrea Jenkyns’ election as Greater Lincolnshire Mayor, for Reform UK. The post has very little power. But her clear margin of victory suggests that Reform UK will win control of Lincolnshire County Council – which has considerable power. We will have confirmation this afternoon.

Nearly a hundred Council by-elections took place too – giving us a sense of opinion on other parts of the country. Many of those counted last night and we saw Reform UK gain seats from Labour in Hartlepool, Harlow, Norfolk, Rochdale, Exeter and Lichfield. Labour lost a seat to the Green Party in Lambeth. Reform UK gained a seat from the Conservatives in Thurrock and from the Lib Dems in Blaby. The Conservatives gained a seat from Labour in Cherwell.

The Press Association has offered the following estimate of declarations for the rest of the results. In the past, these timings have proved pretty unreliable, but they offer some idea:

• 1pm Durham
• 1.45pm Lancashire
• 2.30pm Hull & East Yorkshire Mayoral election
• 3pm Buckinghamshire, Doncaster, Leicestershire
• 3pm Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Mayoral election
• 4pm Gloucestershire, Hertfordshire, Shropshire, Staffordshire
• 4.30pm Derbyshire
• 5pm Lincolnshire, North Northamptonshire, Nottinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Warwickshire, Worcestershire
• 6pm Cambridgeshire, Cornwall, Devon, Wiltshire
• 7pm Kent, West Northamptonshire