Lord Ashcroft: My latest focus groups – “What worries me is, Starmer and Reeves are the best Labour have got”

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com

 My latest focus groups took place in Norwich North, Waveney Valley, Walsall and West Bromwich, where we heard respectively from Conservative-Labour switchers, Green voters, Tory-Reform switchers and Labour voters potentially interested in an alternative.

 Participants of all political persuasions were worried about the government’s plan to scrap jury trials for offences carrying sentences up to three years in prison. There was wide acceptance that the backlog of cases needed to be cleared, and that justice delayed was justice denied, not least for victims of crime. Some argued that open-and-shut cases could easily be tried without a jury, or talked about the inefficiency they witnessed while doing jury service themselves: “When you’ve got a smaller case and it’s apparent what happened because there’s CCTV everywhere, that someone has nicked a car or a bottle of booze from Tesco, what’s the point? It’s just there;” “I did seven weeks of it, and on the second to last day I got a trial, and the defendant walked in and the judge said how do you plead, and he said, ‘oh guilty now’ and the judge went mad. It was a complete waste of time and money.”

“Judges are in a closed little world, like politicians”

However, many had serious concerns.

Participants worried that judges came from a narrow range of backgrounds and lacked the broader experience of a socially diverse jury; that single judges could be pressured to deliver particular verdicts, whether by governments or others; that judges would “fast-track” cases at the expense of justice; and that the move would be a slippery slope to abandoning juries for more serious cases or abolishing them altogether: “Judges come from a privileged background, more often than not. They don’t have that life experience about what put people in the situation they were in;” “Judges are in a closed little world, like politicians;” “You’ve got to be tried by your peers. They’ll just be fast-tracking you through. It will be ‘OK, next!’” “It’s a group decision, not one person’s view. It would be open to nefarious people badgering, hounding, pressuring judges for a different outcome;” “I’d feel very uncomfortable if it then became normal. There would be creep, and it would end up being for all cases;” “It wasn’t in the manifesto. So what comes next? I just don’t trust them now at all.”

A few had picked up on Labour leadership speculation. Though a few gave Keir Starmer credit for maintaining an apparently good relationship with President Trump and perhaps protecting Britain from harsher tariffs, the verdict on his leadership from all our groups was brutal: “a fumbling chancer;” “bland, wooden, boring, no charisma;” “a bit smug and a bit out of touch;” “arrogant;” “you just can’t trust the man;” “no backbone at all;” “I see him and I sort of just feel disappointment.” Most would not be at all surprised, therefore, to see him replaced as Labour leader: “Someone will stab him in the back;” “They’ll start leaving, I imagine.”

But there was no feeling that things would improve if this were to happen: “What worries me is, Starmer and Rachel Reeves are the best Labour have got;” “There’s no-one behind him. Who would be any better?” A few said they liked Shabana Mahmood but doubted she would follow through on (or that Labour MPs would vote for) her tougher line on migration. There were a few positive mentions of Wes Streeting, but he was not widely known. Those who had lost confidence in the government since voting Labour last year did not feel that things would improve significantly with someone else in charge: “They had 14 years to form a plan and they came to the table with zilch;” “None of their policies have benefited me. So I’m probably going to go elsewhere.”

Participants were sharply divided over the prospect of Angela Rayner rejoining the Cabinet. Some saw her as a rare example of a working-class woman in politics, liked her outspoken approach and wanted to give her the benefit of the doubt: “I thought she had a bit more balls;” “She came from a working background so I can relate to her more.” For others, though, for her to return to office having resigned for failing to pay the right tax on a property purchase would further undermine the government’s moral authority: “She’s a hypocrite;” “You’re not going to be able to trust her. Wasn’t it tax evasion?” “It’s like a police officer taking handouts. You’re supposed to be the one who upholds the law;” “If she came back it would just show what they were like.”

“The more we do and the harder we work, the more we get shat on from a great height”

 Participants spontaneously mentioned a number of measures in the November Budget, including lifting the two-child benefit cap, cutting cash ISA limits, restricting salary sacrifice pension schemes, higher business rates, freezing income tax thresholds and taxing electric vehicles. For many, the overall story was one of bigger burdens on working people in order to fund higher welfare spending: “What are they using the tax rises for? It seems like the main reason they raised them was to increase the child benefit;” “I just feel the government have gone ‘there you go, don’t work’. And to the working people, who want to get off their backside and do something, they’re going ‘look at you, you mug’. That’s how I feel. I feel we’ve been mugged off;” “We all went better for our kids. And it just feels like the more we do and the harder we work, the more we get shat on from a great height.”

Lifting the two-child benefit cap provoked the most comment. Some supported the idea: “You don’t want to see children in poverty, do you? And it’s not the children’s fault.” The balance of opinion in these groups was firmly opposed, however: “I chose not to have a family because I can’t afford it. Working people make that choice – I’ll just have one or two children because that’s all they can afford. But now I’m paying for that;” “It incentivises just having the child. There’s an element of personal responsibility;” “If you had three or more children you would be as well off as someone who worked full-time. That hurts a bit, doesn’t it.”

“Well, I think she rocks”

 People in all the groups had seen some coverage of Kemi Badenoch’s Budget response speech (more than had seen her in any previous context) and most of the reviews were good. Many thought she was punchy and amusing, and put a strong case that they agreed with. However, some thought she had crossed too far over the line between legitimate criticism and personal insult. This exchange from our group of women in Norwich, who had switched from the Conservatives to Labour in 2024, is instructive:

“I did quite like Kemi Badenoch’s speech. ‘Don’t talk to me about mansplaining!’ She really went for it.”

“I think she’s bitchy. I think she was nasty and will tread on anyone to get her own way.”

“But maybe that’s what we need. It shows she doesn’t give a shit. ‘I’m a strong independent woman and I’m telling you what for’.”

“And in a male-dominated environment, for a woman to get to the top they do have to be like that to get your voice heard.”

“But you don’t need to insult people to get your point across.”

“Well, I think she rocks. She’s straightforward. She says it how it is. It shouldn’t pay to be on benefits; it should pay to work.”

Whatever their opinion of Badenoch, it was clear that many people’s view of the Conservative party would take longer to change: “I think she’s got the gumption of Thatcher, but your party messed up from before Boris;” “It’s like bargaining with a toddler. They’re going to tell you, ‘I’m really sorry, I will behave’. Then five minutes later, meltdown;” “The trust has gone out of the relationship;” “You’re not looking at the Tories anymore. You’re looking for something new. It’s like being single again.” Even so, some thought circumstances might present the Tories with an opportunity: “In three years’ time, if Labour are going the way they are and it starts being more about the money and where the country is with that, I reckon the Conservatives will come more into the picture because people look at Reform being all about immigration. They don’t really look at the money.”

“Who in this room has never said anything horrible about anyone?”

Discussion about Reform was dominated by Nigel Farage’s schooldays and the accusation that he made repeated racist remarks to fellow pupils. Participants tended to assume that the stories were essentially true, but they differed about their significance. For Farage’s strongest opponents, the claims confirmed what they thought about him already: “Sounds like he was pretty vile and he’s still pretty vile.”

However, even some who were not tempted by Reform argued that people should not be judged on things they may have said at school in a different era, often adding that they wouldn’t want that test applied to themselves. Nevertheless, some thought he could have dealt with the stories better: “I do always think it’s very unfair when people get pulled up about something they said 40 years ago. Who in this room has never said anything horrible about anyone? We all have;” “Whatever happened in his background, it’s what he’s trying to do for the country, isn’t it?” “The nation had a different mindset then. I think he’s getting scapegoated at the moment, but I feel the way he handled it could have been a quick apology and move on.”

“I used to have to search for the Green party before. Now it will come up on my newsfeed”

In Waveney Valley, our 2024 Green voters usually said they had backed the party because it campaigned on prominent local issues, was highly visible, created momentum and established itself as the most plausible alternative to the Conservatives: “I liked the idea of having a co-leader of the party who was our local MP, showing up for this area. They were very strong on the pylons that are meant to be going up. They seemed to care more about the Waveney Valley area more than the previous MPs;” “Adrian Ramsey was in your face 24/7 around here. He was a good bloke and very plausible. I couldn’t name you any of the other candidates. We never saw them;” “There suddenly seemed to be loads of Green councillors and they seemed to have momentum. There were signs everywhere. And they were the only people who bothered to knock on my door;” “I saw him speak about the pylons, which they’ve been campaigning on for years, and also the solar farms they’re planning to have round here. It’s not about not wanting to have the solar farms. It’s about putting them in different places.”

At the same time, some were sceptical of the policies the party would aim to introduce if it gained office: “Banning flights of three hours or less. It will just kill travel and tourism and put so many people out of jobs. Things like that are terrible;” “I think having a Green government and a Green MP are two different things. And I think having a Green MP benefits us hugely here.”

Several had seen Zack Polanksi and noted his success in elevating the party’s profile, even if some thought he had his peculiarities: “I used to have to search for the Green party before. Now it will come up on my newsfeed and there will be pictures of him if I scroll through Facebook or TikTok;” “He gives off a bit of Ed Miliband, and I find Ed Miliband a bit odd. But he’s a politician, and most politicians are a bit odd;” “I’ve seen a few interesting things in the media about what he used to do. Didn’t he used to hypnotise women, trying to tell them it made their breasts bigger?” “That’s what I quite liked about him recently when I saw him in an interview. He admitted what he’d done, said he’d made a mistake, and you don’t hear politicians do that very often.”

A number of previous Labour voters said they were also starting to see the Greens as a left alternative, with its campaigns on tax, Gaza and human rights: “Labour are not really left-wing. It seems like they’re pandering to Reform voters, which is a waste of time because people who vote Reform are never going to vote Labour, and they’re alienating the rest of the population that might vote for them;” “They used to be very much an environmental party, and I think they are more attractive now. They are almost filling that gap where Labour has dropped back a bit.” On this front, the Greens looked to many a better bet than Your Party: “It’s a bit of a shambles, isn’t it? The co-leader, Sultana, didn’t turn up. Well, she turned up at the front door and said, ‘I’m not coming in’. It’s an absolute joke.”

“Snogging in the broom cupboard. HR the next day”

 Finally, it being the season, what would Labour’s office Christmas party be like?

“I think it would be boring as hell. No booze. They’d play boring games. ‘I spy with my little eye something beginning with D’. ‘Deficit!’” “It would be in a Holiday Inn off junction seven on the M6;” “They’d say they’re not going to drink too much but then get hammered. Using the country’s money;” “They’d have craft beer in a can. Sort of gives the pretence of being the everyman, but it’s still quite pretentious;” “Keir feels very uncomfortable. He doesn’t look like he has any fun, does he?” “There would be a huge debate over whether to put little flags on the party cakes;” “I don’t think they’d have a Christmas party. They do everything they can to wreck tradition.”

What about the Reform Christmas party? “On the beach at Dover throwing stones at boats;” “Wetherspoons in Great Yarmouth, wrapped in their flags;” “They’d start singing Christmas carols but end up just shouting about immigrants;” “A disco with 1970s music and Rule Britannia;” “Nigel would do karaoke. I Should Be So Lucky!”

And the Tory Christmas party? “Stately home. Christmas crackers from Harrod’s;” “Kemi would be on the karaoke. I Will Survive! And she’d do a drunk speech and diss everyone in the office;” “I think they’d be absolutely obliterated and embarrassing themselves. Rugby club vibes. Snogging in the broom cupboard. HR the next day.”