Lord Ashcroft: Ukraine’s battle against corruption will define its future

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com

Ukraine has faced numerous corruption scandals over the years, but the one now unravelling in Kyiv stands apart. The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) has uncovered what it calls the largest corruption scheme since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion – this time, within the country’s energy sector.

According to investigators, a 15-month probe and 70 coordinated raids have revealed a vast network of kickbacks within the state nuclear energy operator Energoatom. The scheme allegedly involved top officials collecting 10-15% of each contract’s value from company contractors. Such practices are not new to Ukraine – before the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, kickbacks reportedly reached 30%.  Yet this revelation comes as a bitter shock to Ukrainian society now, amid rolling blackouts and deepening energy shortages.

Every winter since 2022 has been harsh, but this one will be particularly brutal. Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been under relentless bombardment from Russia, which has sought to compensate for its lack of progress on the battlefield with terror against civilians. In previous years, Russian strikes largely targeted transmission lines and pipelines delivering power to homes. While power plants were damaged, they could be repaired. This year, however, Ukraine has lost most of its thermal generation capacity entirely – the destruction is now beyond repair.

Though Ukraine continues to extract its own gas, even those facilities are now being targeted. The result is a nation entering winter with limited capacity to produce and distribute heat and electricity. Rolling blackouts across cities and villages are eroding morale in a country already enduring its fourth year of war. And now, the blow of a corruption scandal worth an estimated $100 million in the very sector most vital to its survival.

Those implicated so far reportedly include former Energy Minister – now recently suspended Justice Minister – Herman Halushchenko, Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov, and businessman Timur Mindich, a former partner of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. While the two officials are under investigation, Mr Mindich has reportedly fled the country.

This is shaping up to be a major test for President Zelenskyy – not only because a long-time associate faces accusations of corruption – but because earlier this year he was criticised for moves that appeared to challenge the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption institutions. That decision was quickly reversed after public backlash, demonstrating the maturity and democratic instincts of Ukrainian civil society. But the damage to confidence seems to linger.

President Zelenskyy has already addressed the nation, promising to support the investigation. Yet the challenge before him is greater than a single case. What is truly at stake now is trust – the trust of Ukrainians enduring cold and darkness at home; the trust of one million soldiers fighting at the front; and the trust of Western partners who have poured resources, money, and political capital into helping Ukraine defend its freedom. These three pillars – public trust, military morale, and international confidence – are what keep Ukraine standing. All three are now under threat.

This is where Ukraine’s leadership must show moral courage equal to its military courage. Token arrests or short-term measures will not suffice. The country must demonstrate that no official, no matter how senior, is above the law.

This scandal also comes just days after the European Commission published its annual enlargement report. The report praised Ukraine’s remarkable progress in aligning its legislation with EU standards, protecting minority rights, and strengthening democratic institutions – all achieved under martial law and daily bombardment. Yet, Brussels also identified persistent weaknesses: corruption and media freedom remain areas where more reform is needed.

Despite this, Ukraine’s pace of transformation is extraordinary. Alongside other EU candidates such as Moldova, Albania, and Montenegro, Ukraine has advanced further and faster in modernising its governance considering it is fighting for its very survival.

What Ukraine is doing is nothing short of historic. A country that shelters from cruise missiles and drones, defends Europe’s eastern frontier, and still manages to carry out institutional reform on this scale is redefining what state resilience means.

But as Ukraine continues to fight on two fronts – against Russia’s aggression and its own entrenched corruption – it must remember that one without the other cannot be won. The bravery of its soldiers must be matched by the integrity of its officials.

Only then will Ukraine emerge not just victorious, but renewed – a model of democracy and accountability at Europe’s new frontier.