Lord Ashcroft: Why two very different but equally clever men may hold the key to war-torn Ukraine’s future

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com

 The more that I travel to Ukraine to report on its brutal war with Russia, the more convinced I become that the future security of this troubled country lies increasingly in the hands of two astute, high-powered men.

No, I am not talking about President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Tough and resilient though he has been in leading his nation, his powers on the international stage are severely limited, especially with the current incumbent of the White House in situ for another three years.

No, I am not even talking about President Donald Trump himself. Powerful though the President is, he has displayed open hostility to President Zelenskyy while at the same time welcoming President Vladimir Putin, Russia’s brutish dictator, to America. Bizarrely, President Trump still needs to be convinced which warring country needs his unequivocal support.

Instead, I am talking about two other men, one from the military and the other a politician, who are both fighting the good fight. I recently returned from my 13^th visit to Ukraine since Russia’s all-out invasion in February 2022, where I witnessed both of these individuals at their most resolute.

The first man is Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, a wily and vastly experienced veteran of the Vietnam War and the Second Gulf War, and who currently has two official posts: Assistant to President Trump and also the US President’s Special Envoy to Ukraine.

President Trump had wanted him to be the Special Envoy to Ukraine and Russia but he had to lose the last two words from that title as a result of opposition from President Putin. Earlier this month, while in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, I had the privilege of conducting a one-to-one interview with General Kellogg. He said of Russia’s objection to him: “I took it as a compliment. They realised I’m not going to roll over.”

During his long and distinguished career as both a senior Army officer and, more recently, a diplomat, the General has never taken prisoners when it comes to defining right from wrong. He also knows that malign dictators, whether they be President Saddam Hussian of Iraq or President Putin of Russia, don’t keep their word and, ultimately, only respond to strong language and, if necessary, military might.

During our hour-long discussion, the General told me: “You have to look at Putin and Russia as an expansionist power. He wants to re-establish the Russian Empire – just look at history. Give him an inch, he’ll take a mile.” He also called Putin a “manipulator” showing all the instincts as president that he showed earlier as a KGB henchman.

The General, like all right-minded individuals, wants a peace deal while standing “on the side of good, fighting pure evil”. He is so pro-Ukraine that I discovered there are countless cartoons and memes circulating in which he is seen as the great protector of Kyiv – in fact, the Russians have never bombed the city while he has been visiting, seemingly out of respect for his formidable war record.

However, the reason that the General is so important to Ukraine’s future is that he not only has an office in the White House but he very clearly also has the President’s respect and they talk regularly.

If President Trump wants to be told how brilliant he is, I suspect he summons J.D. Vance, his Vice President; Marco Rubio; or his Secretary of State; or Steve Witkoff, his Special Envoy for Peace Missions.

If President Trump, however, wants to know what is really going on in Ukraine or what Russia’s territorial ambitions are in Western Europe, or wider afield, I suspect he summons General Kellogg because this is a man, a bruiser from the battlefield, who never minces his word.

Vance, Rubio and Witkoff are far more pro-Putin than the General so it is imperative that he (Kellogg) gets the message across loud and clear that Russia is the aggressor, Russia bombs civilian targets almost daily and that its leader is a war criminal whose territorial ambitions must be thwarted.

However, there is a second man, this time a politician, who is quietly but determinedly playing an equally important role in supporting Ukraine and that is President Alexander Stubb of Finland.

President Stubb was also in Kyiv earlier this month, like me attending the Yalta European Strategy (YES) conference. After his interview on the stage at YES and his appearance on one of the discussion panels, I came away thinking I had not seen a more impressive foreign politician for a long time.

Like General Kellogg, President Stubb is careful not to be publicly critical of President Trump, yet at the same time being 100 per cent supportive of Ukraine against Russia. The reason that President Stubb is so key to Ukraine’s future is that he, like General Kellogg, has President Trump’s respect, partly through an unlikely route.

The US President and the Finnish President play golf together which has resulted in the former being unable to hide his admiration for the latter’s sporting ability. In fact, if he had not become a politician, Alexander Stubb, who speaks perfect English and has a British wife, could have been a professional golfer. President Trump has praised him as a “very good player”, while President Stubb has, with supreme tact, said that the US President is better at golf than most people think he is.

For Ukraine’s sake, it is much better that President Stubb, whose charm is matched by his humility, became a politician rather than a professional sportsman. For while playing golf with President Trump, as well as throwing in the odd tip on driving, bunker shots and putting, I feel certain that he takes every opportunity to suggest to the wavering US President that he needs to be tougher against Russia, at the very least in terms of new sanctions and tariffs.

In terms of his diplomatic clout, President Stubb punches way above his weight – he is the leader of a European country with a population of less than six million that was only granted NATO membership, for its own protection, two years ago.

Yet it is remarkable that whenever President Trump meets a small number of European leaders, President Stubb is always one of them, usually having one of the best seats at the table too. Of course, with Russia having a long border with Finland and a history of being a bad neighbour, President Stubb has a vested interest in gaining influence at the White House.

However, my hunch is that his prime motivation for his good relationship with President Trump is that he is a fundamentally decent and honourable man, who once again, like General Kellogg, wants to be on the side of “right versus wrong”. In fact, President Stubb is on record as saying he would not have run for president of his country if Russia had not invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Three and a half years into a savage war and losing territory most days on the frontline, Ukraine faces a desperate fight for its very survival. However, when I left Kyiv just days ago, I had a renewed sense of optimism for the country that I hold so dear to my heart. In fact, I am convinced that, while General Kellogg and President Stubb still have President Trump’s ear, Ukraine still has real hope.

You can watch Lord Ashcroft’s interview with Keith Kellogg here