Luke Tryl: The outcome of the next election may depend on keeping the furnaces burning

Luke Tryl is Executive Director of More in Common UK

The government’s intervention on British Steel looks like a public opinion win for Labour, but it also demonstrates Nigel Farage’s ability to set the agenda and the Conservatives’ struggle for relevance.

A political historian in 2050, looking for the defining moment of Labour’s 2024 government, may decide that it may well lie in the events of the past few weeks. Or maybe not. The answer will likely hinge on what happens next in Scunthorpe.

What’s clear, for now, is that the government’s decision to take control of the Scunthorpe steel plant sits comfortably on the right side of public opinion. Fifty-four per cent of Britons support nationalising British Steel, and most agree that keeping the Scunthorpe steelworks running is a good use of taxpayer money.

This is not a partisan issue. On most questions of nationalisation – from broadband to British Airways – Labour voters are 20 to 30 percentage points more likely to support public ownership than Conservative voters (although majorities of all voters support nationalising utilities like water). But on steel, that partisan gap narrows to just five points. The public, of all political stripes, wants to see a critical industry under state control.

That’s why moral, economic and national security imperatives aside, there is a clear electoral incentive for the Government’s approach, not least as it tries to figure out how to handle the rise of Reform.

The Reform leader, alongside deputy Richard Tice, visited Scunthorpe – before the crisis hit national headlines – and was among the first to call for nationalisation, a telling reminder that even outside of Government, and with just four MPs, Nigel Farage is driving much of the political weather.

Crucially, the intervention on steel demonstrates Farage understands the priorities of the voter coalition that would propel them to power.

Reform UK is at its strongest in industrial and post-industrial towns; their would-be voters do not share the more libertarian economic views of Reform’s predecessor parties such as UKIP. Instead, much of Reform’s potential voter base is both socially conservative on issues like immigration, but favour much greater state involvement in the economy. From backing nationalisation to aligning with trade unions, Reform’s recent stance suggests they know this.

In fact, this is the year of Farage’s Choice: is he able to temper the excesses of his more engaged online supporters, whose disdain for multi-ethnic Britain, attacks on renewable energy, and lack of support for Ukraine place them well outside the mainstream of public opinion – and instead focus on bread and butter concerns of working class voters on the economy, NHS and immigration? If he can, he may well find himself able to outflank Labour on the left and right.

The danger for the Conservatives, of course, is that they end up squeezed out of the conversation entirely or worse exposed to scrutiny of their own record on steel.

Our polling suggests that, rather than trying to score partisan points on nationalisation, the Conservatives would be better off showing that they back efforts to safeguard British Steel and standing with the Government on an issue of national importance.

The dividing lines for the Conservatives instead lie in being forward looking – building on the early promise of the Johnson government’s Levelling Up agenda and developing a proper industrial strategy  – learning from popular Mayors like Ben Houchen on how to do so. At the same time, More in Common’s polling suggests the public (and particularly Conservative voters) have grown increasingly wary of Chinese involvement in UK infrastructure, defence and public services. As the Government seeks to build better relations with China in their hunt for growth, the Conservatives could find themselves on the right side of public opinion as the voices of caution, and challenge, to the risks of courting the CCP.

All parties have a stake in what happens to British Steel: Labour has to keep the fires burning, Reform has to convince the public they’re more than just a one-trick immigration party, and the Conservatives need to show they still have a role to play in the national conversation. There seems to be no doubt that the next election will at least in part be forged at Scunthorpe Steelworks.