Middle East Peace: The Days After the Day After | The American Spectator

Even while Israel was still reeling from the October 7 pogroms and only just beginning to fight back against Hamas and its numerous allies, Western leaders began demanding to know what the beleaguered Jewish state was going to do “the day after” the war was over. These remonstrances from Israel’s putative friends were not based on friendly curiosity nor even on concern for the victims of this war. They were a form of diplomatic manipulation, an attempt to box the Jewish state into making commitments that it could not and should not make at the early stages of a war whose beginning was unprecedented and whose outcome was uncertain.

Imagine if during the Battle of Britain England’s self-described friends had made a similar demand of her. Understandably Israel did not rise to the bait. It was clear from the outset that this war, especially the part with Hamas, was not going to be like previous wars with the terrorist organization in Gaza.

The barbaric pogroms that had precipitated this war on 10/7 were orders of magnitude beyond the provocations that had initiated Israel’s previous wars with Hamas in 2008, 2012, and 2014. They were so ghastly, so intolerable to the nation that Israel’s war aims were inevitably going to be different from those of the past conflicts. This time the response was not going to be another mere “mowing of the lawn,” a measured and limited operation followed by a return to the status quo ante.

Those Western leaders who were demanding to know what Israel was going to do “the day after” must have sensed this. They had sponsored and were deeply invested in the ill-conceived Oslo Accords that were supposed to lead to a two-state solution, and they were addicted to the manifold pleasures that the magical thinking behind the Oslo Accords afforded them: opportunities for Israel bashing by blaming the Jewish state for the deal’s failures even though it was always the Palestinian Authority that had scuttled it; opportunities to quietly sponsor terrorism by pouring money into bogus human rights NGOs that were funding terrorism in Judea and Samaria; opportunities to make money by doing business with Iran.

That is why when Israel was feeling weakest and feeling most vulnerable, they tried to cajole her into committing to and embracing the deal, the Oslo Accords, that had almost been its undoing. Make no mistake about it, had Israel committed to anything other than the status quo ante or some semblance of it for “the day after” the war ended it would have been met with howls of outrage from her so-called friends.

Since that didn’t work Israel’s putative allies have recently resorted to Plan B, which is their stated intention of recognizing a Palestinian State at the upcoming meeting of the UN General Assembly in September. So far it has been the leaders of four failing and faltering nations — France, the UK, Canada, and Australia — that have made this declaration.

There probably won’t be others that jump into the fray because the consequences of their foolishness has followed hard on the heels of these declarations. Hamas sensing that its hand had been strengthened immediately withdrew from ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire and the return of some hostages in exchange for the release of a large number of murderers from Israeli jails. Hamas publicly thanked these foolish leaders for their help.

In the end these developments, though extremely counterproductive as they unfolded, may turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Hamas’ bad-faith in negotiations has once again been exposed to the world which has allowed the Netanyahu government to harden its position that no deal will be made that does not include the return of all 50 remaining hostages, living and dead, and a laying down of Hamas’ arms. Since that is not about to happen the IDF is preparing its next operation in Gaza which is to conquer Gaza City, Hamas’ last remaining stronghold in the coastal enclave.

When the UN General Assembly meets in September and passes the resolution to recognize a Palestinian State the event will be a nothingburger just as the recent UN conference organized by France and Saudia Arabia — remember that? — was of no material consequence. None of the resolutions of the General Assembly are binding and this one is patently illegal under international law.

Natasha Hausdorff an international law expert and prominent member and spokesperson of the charitable trust, UK Lawyers for Israel, immediately pointed out that international law — particularly Article 1 of the 1933 Montevideo Convention — defines the criteria for statehood: a permanent population, a defined territory, an effective government, and the capacity to engage in relations with other states. Neither of the two Palestinian political entities meets any these criteria. This is why President Trump when informed of President Macron’s declared intention to recognize a Palestinian state curtly dismissed France’s leader as irrelevant.

Although even now it is too early to predict what “the day after” this war will look like, its general contours are starting to take shape. They will be based on the new facts on the ground. Hezbollah with tens of thousands of rockets and a well-trained army has been brought to its knees and is steadily losing ground in southern Lebanon. Whenever it attempts to regroup and rearm, the IDF smacks it down and slowly but surely the Lebanese government is asserting its authority over the whole country.

Iran too has been dealt a severe blow both to its capabilities as well as its prestige. The IDF has shown that its military reach now extends directly to that distant country and that it can and will operate there with relative impunity when necessary. The Iranian militias in Iraq have grown silent and in Yemen the IDF continues to degrade the Houthi terrorists to the point where the government of Yemen — with Western support — will be able to topple and expel it.

The reality which France, the UK, Canada, and Australia refuse to face is that during this war Israel has proven itself to be not just a tiny entity that can be controlled through endless blood libels and toothless UN General Assembly resolutions, but a regional superpower that has finally decided to take its destiny into its own hands. The moderate Muslim states can see this even if the failing leaders of these Western nations cannot. And when the war is over the Abraham Accords will be expanded to probably include Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Indonesia, and possibly even Syria. After that, who knows who else.

In recent polls about 50 percent of Gaza residents have expressed a desire to leave, and when their Hamas jailers are put out of commission they will be enabled to do so.

It is highly unlikely that the foolish four Western nations who have joined the chorus of corrupt states that are sponsoring the illegal UN General Assembly resolution to recognize a non-existent Palestinian state will oppose these peace initiatives, but if they do it will only lessen their own prestige. At that point they will have to decide whether they want to cling to the destructive delusions of the past or accept the new reality, whether they want to continue on their relentless march toward irrelevance or be on the right side of history.

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