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Middle East receives Gaza peace plan with cautious optimism as cracks appear

The cold, harsh realities of the war in the Gaza Strip and the prospect of an ongoing conflict loomed over the Middle East on Tuesday, a day after the region rejoiced at Hamas’ release of the remaining living hostages and President Trump’s celebratory signing of the IsraelHamas ceasefire deal.

Although most Arab powers have praised the U.S.-brokered agreement, the post-deal security dynamics in Gaza remain uncertain. Questions are swirling over whether Hamas will disarm, as the deal requires, and unease is mounting over the prospect of a new Israeli assault if the truce collapses.

Videos online showed Hamas fighters carrying out executions in a Gaza public square. The terrorist group’s militants have reportedly clashed on multiple occasions with other armed groups inside Gaza, resulting in dozens of casualties.

Israeli officials, meanwhile, said Israel will halve the amount of aid entering Gaza and will delay the opening of the Rafah border crossing because of Hamas’ failure to release all the bodies of hostages killed in captivity. Israel is awaiting the return of at least 23 bodies.

On Monday, Hamas released the 20 living hostages remaining in Gaza as well as four deceased hostages. Israel released nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners.

Israel will allow only about 300 trucks carrying humanitarian aid into Gaza this week. No fuel will be allowed into the Palestinian enclave, with small exceptions for infrastructure needs.

Hamas accused Israel of violating the ceasefire after at least nine Palestinians were killed in Gaza City. The Israeli military said its troops opened fire after several Palestinians approached a truce border laid out by the peace deal.

The agreement signed Monday contains three phases: provisions for a robust ceasefire and distribution of humanitarian aid; demilitarization of Hamas; and governmental reforms within Gaza led by Palestinian technocrats and overseen by an international body, and the eventual recognition of a Palestinian state if certain reforms are met. 

Amid the fragile ceasefire, Iran, Hamas’ primary backer, has dismissed Mr. Trump’s proclamation of peace in the Middle East. It said his words don’t align with his administration’s actions.

“One can hardly be branded as President of Peace while provoking endless WARS and aligning with WAR criminals,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X. “Mr. Trump can either be a President of Peace or a President of War, but he cannot be both at the same time.”

The Iranian reaction contrasts with the praise Mr. Trump’s deal has garnered around the region. Even Israel’s historic enemies are hoping for a strong peace.

Egypt, which mediated the peace deal with Turkey and Qatar, has been one of the most vocal proponents of the agreement. For months, the Egyptian government has been preparing for a major role in Gaza’s reconstruction. The Rafah border crossing will likely be one of the primary aid transit zones as the peace deal progresses.

“We pursue a comprehensive vision of peace, security and shared prosperity in the region, grounded in the principles of mutual respect and shared destiny,” Egypt wrote in a joint statement with the other signatories of the deal. “In this spirit, we welcome the progress achieved in establishing comprehensive and durable peace arrangements in the Gaza Strip, as well as the friendly and mutually beneficial relationship between Israel and its regional neighbors.”

State-owned Egyptian construction companies see the reconstruction effort as an economic opportunity. It would bring significant funds to Cairo and possibly strengthen Egypt-Israel relations.

Turkey has emerged as a major, albeit guarded, cheerleader for the deal. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed that Ankara will carefully monitor the implementation of the agreement and said Turkey’s ultimate goal is to work toward the establishment of a Palestinian state, which could put Mr. Erdogan at odds with Israeli leadership.

“As Turkey, we will closely monitor the agreement’s strict implementation and continue to contribute to the process. Similarly, we will continue our struggle until an independent, sovereign and geographically integrated state of Palestine is established in Palestine, based on the 1967 borders, with east Jerusalem as its capital,” he said last week.

Ankara does not consider Hamas to be a terrorist organization and has hosted fighters and leaders from the group for years despite Israeli objections.

Mr. Erdogan actively led the opposition to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s participation in Monday’s peace summit in Egypt, where the agreement was signed. Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas attended the signing.

Beyond the agreement’s brokers, Lebanon has viewed the agreement as a good sign. If the deal holds, it could pave the way for Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon, where its troops maintain a noticeable presence.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said Monday that Lebanon and Israel must use the moment to hammer out a comprehensive peace agreement that would have Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based Islamic militant group aligned with Hamas, lay down its arms and the Israeli military leave Lebanon.

“Conditions are moving toward negotiations to achieve peace and stability,” Mr. Aoun said. “Therefore, we say that through dialogue and negotiations, solutions can be reached.”

Syria, emerging from the ashes of the Assad regime, has been overtly optimistic about the agreement.

As negotiators finalized the Gaza deal over several months, Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa and his diplomats worked to iron out a disengagement agreement that could stabilize the Syria-Israel border.

Mr. al-Sharaa’s support for the deal could improve his standing among those in Israeli leadership who have expressed concerns that the former Islamic militant leader has not abandoned his fundamentalism.

The agreement signed Monday ends one of the deadliest periods in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which began after Hamas militants launched a series of deadly attacks on Oct. 7, 2023. Hamas killed nearly 1,200 Israelis during the attacks and took hundreds hostage.

An estimated 67,000 Palestinians have been killed over the course of the war, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, which is under Hamas control. Israeli authorities dispute those numbers.

Almost 2,000 Israelis have been killed during the conflict, the Israeli Foreign Affairs Ministry said.

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