Mike Johnson Says Mar-a-Lago Flip Won’t Affect Midterms

House Speaker Mike Johnson said Thursday that Democrats’ recent win in a Florida state race in a district that backed President Donald Trump in 2024 won’t shake Republican confidence heading into the midterms.

Democrat Emily Gregory flipped a Florida State House seat that includes Mar-a-Lago, defeating Trump-endorsed Republican Jon Maples in a district the president carried by double digits in 2024. Appearing on “Special Report with Bret Baier,” Johnson said the outcome does not signal trouble for Republicans.

“The president, obviously in his backyard, and he won that district overwhelmingly. As you look at that, do you see a canary in the coal mine about November?” host Bret Baier asked.

“I don’t at all. In fact, I talked with the president about this after that election result came in and his team. These special elections are a one-off, and they’re anomalies. That’s why we call them special. There was circumstances in that race at the state legislative level not involved with Congress. I am very bullish about November, very bullish about the mid-terms,” Johnson said.

Baier pressed him on whether that GOP confidence is justified.

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“Even right now? Looking at everything that’s coming up?” Baier asked.

“Absolutely right, and I give you a very boring 90-minute slideshow, Bret, to prove to you all the reasons we’re going to win. But look, it summarizes us having a great record to run on: promises made, promises kept. The Big Beautiful Bill working families tax cut is going to be working for middle- and lower-class earners, and they’ll feel the effects of that and know they made the right decision because we had a big demographic shift in 2024,” Johnson said.

Johnson said that the party’s first-ever midterm convention in September will showcase its achievements and energize the base. (RELATED: CNN’s Harry Enten Reveals What Democrats’ Stunning Mar-A-Lago Flip Means For Midterms)

“I think we hold those voters. We got better candidates. We have more funding right now. We have a president who is running like he is on the ballot, and he is out doing rallies around the country and rallying the base. We’re gonna have a midterm convention for the first time in history in September, right for early voting, to parade all of these stars and in our great record across the stage. I feel very good about this. I believe we’re going to defy history and grow the Republican majority,” Johnson said.

Gregory won 17,113 votes (51.19%), narrowly edging out Maples, who received 16,316 votes (48.81%). She will succeed former Republican Florida State Rep. Mike Caruso, who resigned from House District 87 in August 2025 after Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed him Clerk of the Circuit Court and Comptroller of Palm Beach County. Both campaigns together spent more than $1 million in the closely contested special election.

Trump also backed Texas Republican Leigh Wambsganss, but she lost a February State Senate special election in a district the president carried by double digits in 2024. Florida’s House District 87, which includes Palm Beach and Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, supported him by nearly 11 points last year, though he won it narrowly in his previous two presidential campaigns.

Even after Gregory’s victory, Democrats hold just 34 of the Florida State House’s 120 seats, or 28% of the chamber, despite former Vice President Kamala Harris winning 43% of the state’s vote in 2024.

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