Newslinks for Friday 26th September 2025

Tories set for 45 seats and Reform near outright majority, major poll predicts

“Nigel Farage is on course to be prime minister, according to a seat-by-seat YouGov poll which reveals the scale of Conservative implosion. The YouGov MRP polling projection, based on a 13,000 sample taken over the last three weeks, suggests an election held tomorrow would see a hung parliament with Reform UK winning 311 of the 650 seats, 15 seats short of the formal winning line of 326. In practice, once the Speaker and absent Sinn Fein MPs are accounted for, it would be all but impossible for anyone other than Mr Farage to secure the largest number of MP backers and thus become prime minister. Reform UK has improved its position since the last YouGov MRP in June, when it was 55 seats short of a majority. The projection suggests 306 Reform gains, up from their current seat tally of five, which would be the biggest increase in any election in British history. The projection of Commons seats in Great Britain puts Reform UK on 311 seats, Labour on 144 seats, Liberal Democrats on 78 seats, Conservatives on 45 seats, SNP on 37 seats and Greens on seven seats, with Plaid on six seats and three seats won by left-wing challengers. Barely a year after Keir Starmer won a landslide, this result would see Labour lose around two-thirds of their existing seats, down from the 411 they won in last year’s general election. This is significantly worse than the party’s 2019 result under Jeremy Corbyn when the party won 202 seats and is their lowest tally since 1931… The Conservatives would fare even worse, pushed potentially to the brink of extinction. They would lose two-thirds of their 121 seats won last year – which was already their worst result in their 190-year modern history – reducing their tally to 45 seats. And even further back, it would be worse than any result they’ve ever suffered, all the way back to the formation of their predecessor party, the Tory Party in the 1670s. This would put the Tories in fourth place behind the Lib Dems, and the first time they have not been one of the two biggest parties. The Conservatives would be wiped out in both Wales and the South West, a heartland as recently as 2015, and left with just six seats in the north and one in Scotland. Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, James Cleverly and Mel Stride could be among the casualties. Almost 60% of their current front bench would lose their seats.” – Sky News

• Reform on track to WIN next election with Labour losing two thirds of their seats, reveals bombshell poll – The Sun
• First YouGov megapoll since June reveals exact number of seats Reform will win – Daily Express
• Reform on brink of outright majority if election were held today – The Times

Comment:

• MRP shows Labour may be swept away in tsunami of unpopularity – Sir John Curtice, The Times
• Can Keir Starmer the insurgent stop Reform? – Patrick Maguire, The Times

> Today: Forget roast swan and paracetamol, or taxi drivers for sharia law, Reform need to wean themselves off always backing Trump

Sarah Ingham: We shouldn’t take our eyes of the Lib Dems however absurd they often sound

Starmer sets out plan for ‘Brit card’ digital ID

“Digital ID cards are a “cynical ploy” designed to “fool” voters into thinking something is being done about immigration, Reform UK has claimed. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch also dismissed the plans as a “gimmick that will do nothing to stop the boats”. Meanwhile, Sir Tony Blair’s think tank said the cards, which will be mandatory by the end of this Parliament, could act as a “gateway to government services”. The so-called Brit-Cards will allow the verification of a citizen’s right to live and work in the UK, and are expected to be unveiled by the Prime Minister during a speech on Friday. Sir Keir is due to speak at the Global Progress Action Summit in London alongside Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese and Canadian prime minister Mark Carney. Anyone starting a new job or looking to rent a home would be required to show the card on a smartphone app, under the proposals. It would then be checked against a central database of people entitled to live and work in the UK. It is hoped this would reduce the attraction of working in the UK illegally, including for delivery companies. But some are not convinced by the proposals, with Nigel Farage’s party branding them “laughable”. Writing in The Telegraph, Sir Keir said: “This Government will make a new, free of charge, digital ID that will be mandatory for the right to work by the end of this Parliament.” Earlier this month, the Prime Minister said an ID card system could play an “important part” in stopping illegal migration. A total of 1,157 people have arrived on small boats in the last week, according to Home Office statistics. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has also previously been positive about the policy. The Tories have called for “a proper national debate” so arguments for and against the digital ID cards could be heard before the “serious step” is taken. It is expected the cards will be subject to consultation and require legislation, as first reported by The i Paper.” – The Standard

• Starmer to unveil digital ID cards in plan set to ignite civil liberties row – The Guardian
• Starmer faces Labour revolt over digital ID cards – Daily Telegraph
• What is a digital ID card and how will it work? What we know so far – The Times

Comment:

• The Left ignored immigration fears for too long. It’s time to give communities back control – Keir Starmer, Daily Telegraph
• Starmer’s nightmarish digital ID plans won’t solve illegal migration – John Power, Daily Telegraph
• Tony Blair’s dream that will be nightmare for Brits – almost 20 years since he was PM – Leo McKinstry, Daily Express

> Today: Ben Spencer: We need to be celebrating Britishness and explaining and encouraging the the value of citizenship

Starmer’s chief of staff McSweeney still under fire

“Sir Keir Starmer’s chief of staff ‘hid’ a £50,000 donation on the very day he was told he had a legal duty to declare his funding. Official documents reveal that Morgan McSweeney’s Labour Together think-tank received the cash injection on the same day the Electoral Commission confirmed in writing that he was required by law to report all donations of more than £7,500. Despite the warning that donations must be declared within 30 days, it was kept secret for more than three years, by which time Mr McSweeney was working as Sir Keir’s chief of staff. The news raises fresh questions about Labour Together’s claim that its failure to report more than £730,000 in donations in a three-year period was the result of ‘human error and administrative oversight’. It also piles pressure on the Electoral Commission to reopen an investigation into the episode, which originally led to Labour Together being fined for more than 20 breaches of election law. Tory chairman Kevin Hollinrake, who has urged the watchdog to call in the police over the ‘hidden’ donations, said: ‘This is just the latest staggering revelation about the Morgan McSweeney scandal. The Prime Minister’s right-hand man was warned by the Electoral Commission twice that he needed to declare donations, and yet engaged in an industrial-scale cover-up of a slush fund he used to install Keir Starmer as Labour leader – including the very same day he was warned by the watchdog. This scandal strikes right at the heart of Starmer’s government. The Conservatives have demanded a full investigation and will continue to fight until the public get the truth.’ Electoral Commission records show that the watchdog warned Mr McSweeney in November 2017 that he had a legal duty to declare donations – and told him to write a letter to explain why he had not been doing so. Mr McSweeney argued that Labour Together was not covered by the law as it was not involved directly in campaigning.” – Daily Mail

• Morgan McSweeney could face police investigation over electoral fraud claims – Daily Telegraph
• Burnham, Powell, Corbyn and Farage – the four threats who could finish Starmer – The i
• Watchdog criticised Morgan McSweeney think tank over donations – The Times
• Conservatives continue calls for McSweeney investigation – ITN
• WATCH: Steve Reed’s Internet Cuts Out When Asked About McSweeney – Guido Fawkes

Comment:

• Starmer won’t survive the loss of another ally – Tom Harris, Daily Telegraph
• Failing Starmership Enterprise needs its Scotty – Juliet Samuel, The Times
• Andy Burnham is Labour’s Boris Johnson – he can’t save the party – Kwasi Kwarteng, The i

> Yesterday: Emma Revell: His past acts in Labour Together might see McSweeny forced to leave Starmer on his tod in Number 10

News in brief:

• The UK needs a visionary – but it’s stuck with Starmer – Callum Price, CapX
• The Church of England is wrong to condemn migration protests – George Owers, Unherd
• The cult of Obama is over – Max Jeffery, The Spectator
• Preach the hard to get the average – Angus Kincaid, The Critic