Newsom firmly in driver’s seat of 2028 Dem primary after gerrymandering gambit: Poll

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is leading a hypothetical 2028 Democratic presidential primary field, according to an Emerson College poll released Friday.

Newsom notched 25% support, marking a 13-point increase from the June Emerson College poll, according to the August survey. Meanwhile, 16% of voters said they would support former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg in the 2028 Democratic primary contest and only 11% said they would support former Vice President Kamala Harris, the party’s failed 2024 nominee, according to the new poll.

Five percent of voters indicated support for Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro in the survey, while Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez each had 4% of voters’ support.

“Governor Newsom’s support surged across key demographic groups, highlighted by a 12-point increase among voters under 30 (6% to 18%) an 18-point increase among voters over 70 (13% to 31%), and a 14-point increase among both black (9% to 23%) and white (10% to 24%) voters,” Executive Director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball said in a statement.

Moreover, in a hypothetical 2028 presidential election matchup featuring Vice President JD Vance and Newsom, the potential candidates were tied with 44% support, while 12% of voters were undecided, according to the survey. In the July Emerson College poll, 45% of respondents supported Vance while 42% backed Newsom.

“Newsom’s recent gains are driven largely by younger voters 18-29: after splitting this group in June (39% to 38%), he now holds a clear lead, 45% to 28%,” Kimball added.

Newsom, who is term-limited and thus cannot run for reelection in California’s 2026 gubernatorial race, has been expanding his national profile this year amid growing speculation that he is laying the groundwork for a potential 2028 White House run. The California governor has also been using Trump-style rhetoric in social media posts recently.

The California governor has recently made headlines while spearheading an effort to redraw California’s congressionalmap in an attempt to give Democrats up to five new seats, largely as retaliation against the GOP’s redistricting efforts in Texas. National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson said in an Aug. 15 statement that Newsom is “shredding California’s Constitution and disenfranchising voters to prop up his presidential ambitions.”

When asked about whether he has presidential aspirations, Newsom told the Wall Street Journal in June that while he is”not thinking” about running in 2028, it is a “path” that he “could see unfold.” Newsom notably admitted on Wednesday that the “essence of the challenge” to the Democratic Party is “weakness.”

The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted Aug. 25 to 26. The sample of U.S. active registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.

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