Patrick English: Who are the one-in-three Welsh voters who want to abolish the Senedd – and why?

Dr Patrick English is Director of Political Analytics at YouGov, and their spokesman on political research.

Next year, a new Welsh parliament (Senedd) will be elected in the country’s seventh general election to a Wales-only legislative chamber (including the Welsh Assembly from 1999-2016) since the 1997 devolution referendum.

Despite the enduring nature of Welsh devolution, and the expansion of powers and responsibilities given to it over time, there remains a significant section of the Welsh population who are in favour of the abolition of the Senedd and an end to Welsh self-governance.

YouGov polling in September 2024 reported that almost a third – 31 per cent – of the public in Wales believe that ‘abolition of devolution’ was the right constitutional path forward for Wales, significantly outranking the number who believe that Wales should be an independent country (24 per cent).

To be clear, Senedd abolition is a minority view in Wales: in the same survey, 46 per cent of told us they were against ending Welsh devolution, and still 40 per cent told us they wanted to see further devolution to Wales (with 37 per cent opposed so such a suggestion).

Nonetheless, just under a third of adults in Wales amounts to around 800,000 people of the opinion that Wales should have no level of devolved responsibilities, and instead that decisions about Wales and Welsh affairs should be taken elsewhere.

To put this figure into comparative context, YouGov found that only 20 per cent of people living in Scotland held the same opinion regarding Holyrood and Scottish devolution (61 per cent were opposed).

So, who are this circa third of the Welsh public?

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the YouGov poll reports that a majority (61 per cent) of those who voted for Reform UK – a party with heavy devolution-sceptic origins but who have now pivoted to a more muted position – in Wales at the 2024 election support ending Welsh devolution.

Perhaps less obviously, given that party’s (general) longstanding support for the devolution settlements, two thirds of Conservative 2024 voters (66 per cent) also agree.

On the other side of the coin, no fewer than 82 per cent of Plaid voters in the survey said they opposed getting rid of the Welsh parliament and government, as did majorities of Labour (67 per cent) and Lib Dem (58 per cent) voters.

People who voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum are far more likely to support Senedd abolition (51 per cent) than those who voted Remain (19 per cent), as are those with no Welsh language speaking ability (37 per cent) compared to those who speak Welsh fluently (63 per cent of whom are opposed to the abolition of devolution in Wales).

There are strong age gradients, too. While only 14 per cent of those aged 18 to 24 are in favour of abolishing the Senedd, this rises to 23 percent of those aged 26 to 49, 39 per cent of those aged 50-64, and 42 per cent of those aged 65 and above.

Back in 2021, YouGov also surveyed respondents in Wales and Scotland on the question of devolution and asked a question specifically to pro-Senedd abolition supporters about where instead decisions which affect their communities should be taken. Around the same number (28 per cent, specifically) told us then that they would vote to eliminate the Welsh parliament as the number of those in favour of abolishment we recorded at the tail end of last year.

One might expect that those in favour to point overwhelmingly toward Westminster, this was not the case. Of those in Wales who said they wanted the parliament abolished, while 48 per cent said decisions would be better made in Westminster, almost a third (30 per cent) said that power should rest with local government.

This represents an important dynamic within the pro-Senedd abolition congregation in Wales – there are some who think the power currently bestowed upon the Welsh government ought to be send ‘upwards’ to the Houses of Parliament, but there are some who think it ought to go further downwards, to local authorities and elected representatives in local governance structures.