Paxton leads Cornyn by double digits in Texas senate race, poll shows

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is leading Republican Sen. John Cornyn by double digits in the 2026 Texas Senate race, according to a recent Republican primary poll.

Paxton is ahead of Cornyn by 16 percentage points — 56% to 40% — in a two-way poll commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), Punchbowl News first reported on Monday. Meanwhile, in a hypothetical three-way matchup with Republican Texas Rep. Wesley Hunt, who is reportedly considering entering the primary contest, Paxton notched 44% of the vote to Cornyn’s 34% and Hunt’s 19%.

SLF, a super PAC that supports Republicans, is backing Cornyn’s Senate reelection bid. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Tim Scott have encouraged President Donald Trump to endorse Cornyn in the Senate GOP primary, CNN first reported in April. Trump has yet to make an endorsement in the contest.

The survey also found that in a head-to-head matchup with former Democratic Texas Rep. Colin Allred, who is reportedly mulling another Senate run, Cornyn led by 6 points and Hunt led by points — but Paxton trailed by 1 point, Punchbowl News reported. Allred was the failed Democratic nominee for Texas’ other Senate seat in 2024, losing to incumbent Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by 8.5 points.

“Senator Cornyn has a 99% voting record with Trump as President and continues to be his close legislative ally,” Matt Mackowiak, a senior campaign adviser for Cornyn, said in a statement shared with the Daily Caller News Foundation. “In ten months, when Texas GOP primary voters completely understand the record of both candidates, we are confident we will win.”

“The numbers don’t lie – John Cornyn is in a far better early position than Ken Paxton,” SLF Communications Director Chris Gustafson told Punchbowl News. “Texans only need one quick look at Paxton’s record before his support plummets, and it’s clear he would risk delivering the Senate majority to Chuck Schumer.”

Regardless of who wins the GOP primary, early forecasts show that the Texas Senate seat is likely to stay in Republican hands. The non-partisan Cook Political Report has rated the race as “Solid R.” However, some Democratic strategists believe that in the event of a 2026 “blue wave,” an upset Senate win in Texas could potentially make the difference in the party’s long-shot bid to take control of the upper chamber.

The poll was conducted from April 27 to May 1 by the Tarrance Group.

Paxton’s campaign did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.

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