Peter Franklin is an Associate Editor of UnHerd.
It’s now more than a month since party conference. That’s enough time to assess the impact of Kemi Badenoch’s speech — and the big announcements on energy policy, quitting the ECHR and scrapping stamp duty. So just how much of a difference has all of that made to our poll ratings?
I’m tempted to refer to the popular statistician, Frances Adams. But I’d better quote Theresa May instead: “nothing has changed, nothing has changed.”
Admittedly, one thing has changed: there’s no hint of an imminent leadership contest. There doesn’t seem any point — at least not until after the May 2026 elections. And even then, one would have to ask: what exactly would a new leader do differently?
Until Badenoch’s rivals articulate an alternative vision, the only surefire game-changer (for better or worse) is Boris Johnson — but so far, he’s also done zip to rehabilitate himself with his traumatised party.
So is that it then?
The end of our party as a major force in British politics?
Well, I’ve already set out ten reasons why we must carry-on regardless. But is there anything more than that — a glimmer of hope in the darkness?
Well, I think I may have spotted one.
At first sight, there’s no reason to think that Reform won’t win a majority at the next election. When they’re that far ahead, and the other parties are so divided, it’s a dead cert.
Except that analysis by YouGov for The Times casts matters in rather different light. According to the Times political editor, Steve Swinford, the research suggests that “more than half, or 57 per cent, of all Liberal Democrat voters and 46 per cent of Green voters would give up their first preference and back Labour if they were in a seat where Reform UK looked likely to win“. In other words, the biggest obstacle to a Reform majority isn’t a Tory revival, but Left-of-centre tactical voting on a massive scale.
The implication here is that Labour will be seen as the stop-Farage party in most of the 400-odd seats it currently holds. I’d argue that’s far from certain — not when the polls show the Greens challenging Labour from the Left. Moreover, in Scotland, the SNP is regaining its strength. In Wales, buoyed by the Caerphilly by-election result, Plaid Cymru is surging. In England, the Lib Dems have a track record of holding off Reform in local by-elections. And let’s not forget Your Party — finally due to launch itself later this month.
So while Reform is right to fear the impact of Left-of-centre tactical voting, Labour is unlikely to be the only — or even the main — beneficiary. It’s all-too-likely that the next government of the United Kingdom won’t just include Labour and the Lib Dems, but also various Nats, Greens and Corbynites.
So is that my glimmer of hope? The prospect of Zack Polanski and Zarah Sultana sat around the Cabinet table?
Er, no. Rather, it’s the other part of the YouGov analysis. According to Swinford, “Liberal Democrat, Labour and Green voters were also prepared to back the Tories in seats that were vulnerable to Nigel Farage’s party. 34 per cent, of current Labour voters would back Kemi Badenoch’s party to stop Reform, as would 39 per cent of current Lib Dem voters and even 19 per cent of Green voters.”
Well, well, well. Isn’t that interesting?
A significant proportion of these voters will be ex-Tories, some of whom switched away from us for Brexit-related reasons and others because of the 2019-2024 clown show. So, it wouldn’t be that surprising if those who don’t like or trust Farage could be persuaded to back us in Con/RUK marginals. They might also help us regain seats lost to Labour in 2024: if the Tory candidate is reckoned more capable of beating Reform — as is plausible in parts of the country that were, until recently, True Blue — then tactical voting could make all the difference.
How then might a Conservative leader position his or her party to take full advantage?
The glib answer is “very carefully”, but actually it would need to begin with a bold reassessment of our place in the political firmament.
The fact is that, through our own stupid fault, we’ve lost our status as the main Right-of-centre party. It’s now time to accept this loss — and focus instead on something we’ve gained. As things stand, the main choice at the next election is between a Farage-led government or some kind of Left-of-centre arrangement. Therefore the strategic positioning for the Conservative Party is this: that we represent the neither/nor option i.e. neither unfettered populism nor a new coalition of chaos.
For a significant slice of the electorate, this will be the least worst option and therefore a reason to vote tactically.
But, hang-on, wouldn’t this just make us the new middle-of-the-road party? Even if that territory weren’t already occupied by the Lib Dems, how could a Conservative leader hold to such a course without driving even more of the Tory Right to Reform?
The first thing to say is that we don’t have to pretend that we wouldn’t join a Farage-led government if Reform fell short of a majority. We would, however, set out strict conditions for participation — for instance, unambiguous support for NATO against Russian aggression. In other words we’d offer ourselves as a check on Reform’s worst tendencies.
As for possible participation in a non-Reform coalition — i.e. with Labour and the Lib Dems — our conditions would be equally strict. For a start, no inclusion of separatist, sectarian or extreme Leftwing parties. Further to that, we’d draw red lines on national sovereignty, fiscal credibility and border control.
So, forget the middle-of-the-road, I’m talking about the hard centre. If we can’t reclaim our former status from Reform, then let us become the kingmaker and honest broker of a broken political landscape.
Of course, that is a role that has to be earned. So let’s prepare by being the truth-telling party — both about ourselves and the state of the country.
I’d love to tell you what that would entail, but I’m running out of word count. So let me conclude with an example of what we need to avoid: and that, unfortunately, is Kemi Badenoch’s conference speech — and, specifically, the sub-Trussite policy of abolishing Stamp Duty.
I don’t deny that SDLT is a flawed tax.
If our public finances were in a better state, it would be wonderful to get rid of it. But our public finances are not in a good state. Our demographics are deteriorating, our infrastructure is crumbling and our economy is starved of investment. That’s why we shouldn’t pretend that abolishing Stamp Duty is the priority just so that an embattled leader can produce a rabbit from her hat.
Indeed, with Reform shelving most of its promised tax cuts we now look flakier than Farage. Badenoch and her shadow cabinet have fallen short of the standard required of a truth-telling party — and for the sake of a stunt that barely budged our poll ratings.
