Peter Franklin: Is the Conservative Party prepared for a new Labour Prime Minister?

Peter Franklin is an Associate Editor of UnHerd.

In 2025 Kemi Badenoch visibly grew into her role as leader of the opposition. But I hope she has hidden depths of adaptability and resilience — because, in 2026, she’s going to need them.

The imminent danger is Reform. Nigel Farage knows that his party is losing momentum while his Conservative rivals are regaining it. So expect a major attempt to upset that dynamic in 2026 — and expect it soon.

But it’s another disruptive possibility that I want to focus on today: the potential fall of Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Prime Minister.

Let me stress potential.

Labour is not well-practiced in the art of regicide. The last time they tried to rid themselves of an unwanted leader (Jeremy Corbyn in 2016) it backfired horribly. Already there are signs that the party’s dominant “soft left” faction is flunking the current challenge. Just consider the sheer stupidity of one plot — as reported in The Times before Christmas — which is to let Starmer stay as Prime minister but only if he sacks his chief-of-staff Morgan McSweeney and restores Angela Rayner, Lucy Powell and Louise Haigh to the Cabinet. This would be the worst of both worlds: destroying what’s left of the Prime Minister’s authority while leaving him in place as front man — the role to which he’s least suited.

What he is good at however is backroom political manoeuvring.

Just look at the way he entered frontline politics late in his career, prospered in the wasteland left behind by the failed attempt to oust Corbyn and escaped the blame for the 2019 general election defeat (for which his Brexit strategy was partly responsible). He then took the leadership without breaking a sweat, ruthlessly purged the Corbynites and stormed into power with a three figure majority. It would be foolish to count the man out.

And yet in terms of approval ratings no previous Prime Minister (who lasted in office for more than fifty days) has fallen further and faster. Since the election, Labour has lost one chunk of its support to Reform and another to the Greens. Its vote share now regularly falls below 20 per cent in some polls — but even with its support eroded down to the bedrock, nearly 40 per cent of party supporters say the party would do better with Starmer gone (according to The Independent).

If the polls weren’t bad enough, there’s a massive set of real election results coming after the 7th of May — when the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Senedd and 5,000 council seals across England are up for grabs. Unless Labour can find a pretext for cancelling those elections too, it can expect an utter drubbing: in England, the loss of hundreds of council seats; in its London stronghold, proof of a breakthrough for the Greens; in Scotland, the prospect of coming third behind the SNP and Reform, and in Wales, the worst result of all: the end of Labour dominance for the first time in more than a century. Furthermore, unlike any bad news for the Conservative Party, the blame for Labour’s losses will attach the current leader alone.

So while there are no guarantees that Starmer will go next year, Conservative strategists would be well-advised to make contingency plans

But how much of a difference would a change of Prime Minister actually make?

The cynical answer — perhaps informed by recent Conservative history — is very little. But there are other examples in which a change at the top does change the political weather.

It’s forgotten now, but replacing Joe Biden with Kamala Harris did give the Democrats a shot at winning last year’s US Presidential election. They wasted it by doubling down on their toxic wokery, but for a while their campaign was given a tremendous shot in the arm. Then there’s the Canadian example — in which the seemingly doomed Liberal government dumped Justin Trudeau in favour of Mark Carney. Obviously, he had some help in the form of Donald Trump’s boorish disrespect for Canada’s sovereignty — but Carney’s gravitas was ideally suited to the moment.

Does the British Labour Party have the equivalent of a Carney or even a Harris?

If there is a leadership election next year it will come fifty years after the race to succeed Harold Wilson. That was a true clash of the Titans, featuring Jim Callaghan (who won) against Michael Foot, Roy Jenkins, Tony Benn, Dennis Healey and Anthony Crosland. Compare that stellar line-up to the current crop of hopefuls — and it’s hard not to feel sad for the Labour Party and indeed the state of British politics in general.

The most impressive of the current candidates (these things are relative) is Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester and so-called King of the North. According to a YouGov favourability survey of 12 senior politicians— Burnham with his net approval rating of zero was the most popular (or, rather, the least unpopular). In the run-up to conference season, a poll by More in Common for the New Statesman showed Labour returning to first place if Burnham were leader. As well as popularity he’s also got something of an alternative set of policies ready to go — including the certain game-changer: electoral reform.

So there’s no doubt about it, Kemi Badenoch, and Nigel Farage have got more to fear from Burnham than any other of the favourites. Just as well, then, that he’s not currently eligible to stand (not being an MP). His Labour rivals therefore share a common interest with the opposition parties — and that is to replace Starmer sooner rather than later because that leaves less time for the by-election required to bring Burnham back to Westminster.

However, a by-election is still a distinct possibility. Clive Lewis, the MP for Norwich South, has said he’d be willing to resign his seat to trigger the necessary contest. Badenoch therefore needs to be ready with an anti-Burnham strategy — and, in particular, a plan to resist the introduction of proportional representation. To change the election rules without a referendum or, at the very least, a manifesto commitment) should be portrayed as what it is: an outrage against democracy.

The next most problematic Starmer replacement would be the Health Secretary, Wes Streeting.  Like Burnham he can speak human — and also like Burnham he’s willing to take big risks on policy. In Streeting’s case, the potential game-changer is a move to rejoin the Customs Union. Obviously, that would lack an immediate electoral mandate and would blow-up the UK’s independent trade policy — including trade deals negotiated by the current government. However, it would position Streeting to exploit the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum and the wasted opportunities of the last decade.

Certainly, it would refocus the political agenda on an area that Badenoch has been at pains to gloss over i.e. the record of her last three or four predecessors. At the very least, she’s going to need an effective Europe spokesman in her top team — and right now it’s difficult to think who that might be.

In the meantime, she’d better hope that Streeting’s key disadvantages: his position on the shrivelled Blairite wing of Labor Party plus the impediment of his extremely unsafe seat prevent him from becoming Labour leader.

After Burnham and Streeting, the talent pool pretty much dries up.

Shabana Mahmood does have potential, but has yet to deliver on immigration and she is, in any case, too “Blue Labour” for her socially liberal party. Then we come to the soft left candidates like the aforementioned Rayner, Powell and Haigh. We could throw Bridget Phillipson into the mix too. Then again, what would be the point? They all share Starmer’s basic approach to domestic politics, but lack his experience, let alone his strongest card — which is his standing on the world stage. Can you imagine Our Ange dealing with Trump and Putin? I’ll admit it would be morbidly fascinating, but let’s leave that scenario to the imagination.

The same goes for the idea of Ed Miliband as Prime Minister. He may be the party members’ favourite, but when the idea was put to the British people in 2015, it was firmly rejected. The rumour mill suggests that Miliband himself doesn’t want the top job — and is angling for Chancellor instead. In which event it would be left to Mel Stride to congratulate Labour on finding an even more miserable replacement for Rachel Reeves.

Aside from Burnham and Streeting the Labour front runners are exceptionally unimpressive. That’s yet another reason not to write off Keir Starmer — but also a reason to expect the truly unexpected. If Starmer is forced out, and both Burnham and Streeting are frustrated in their ambitions, Labour might as well go for a wild card candidate.

Remember, how Emmanuel Macron suddenly emerged out of nowhere to save the French political establishment in 2017? Well, don’t be surprised if his British equivalent is already being prepared.