Peter Franklin: The local elections could make or break a Tory-Reform alliance

Peter Franklin is an Associate Editor of UnHerd.

Mayday is the international radio distress call. It is, of course, derived from the French m’aidez, meaning “help me” – and has nothing to do with the calendar.

That said, the Conservative Party is likely to find itself in considerable distress after the local elections on the 1st May. Given that our poll ratings have basically halved since we last fought these seats in 2021, it will be a miracle if we don’t lose hundreds of councillors. At the same time, Reform UK looks set for major gains.

So could these be the “most important local elections in a political generation”, as Tim Shipman Tim Shipman suggests in the Sunday Times? According to him, the Reform and Labour high commands believe that the 1st May will be the “first step in a realignment of British politics on the right by the end of 2026”.

Yet there’s many a slip twixt cup and lip. Far from accelerating a realignment of the Right, the arrival of the Faragistes as a major party of local government could derail it altogether.

To understand why, cast your mind back to what Kemi Badenoch said last week about doing deals with Reform. There’ll be no national deal, she insisted, but at the local level Conservative councillors will be free to negotiate power-sharing agreements with Reform councillors – just as they are with most other parties, even Labour.

The response from Nigel Farage wasn’t exactly helpful. The BBC quotes him as saying that his party had “no intention in forming coalitions with the Tories at any level.”

He did, however, leave the way open to “working relationships” with other parties after the elections. So on closer inspection, his position towards the Conservatives is pretty much identical to Kemi Badenoch’s position towards Reform.

Why, then, did he create the impression of a snub? It may be that he just enjoys annoying Conservative leaders, but he’s also sensitive to Labour’s new anti-Reform strategy: to portray his party not as extremists, but as Tories in disguise.

It’s a line of attack that could easily backfire on Sir Keir Starmer, but nevertheless Farage is taking care not scare away the slice of the Labour vote that’s now within his grasp.

Just take a look at the electoral map for the 1st May. Tory blue, interspersed with Liberal Democrat gold, dominates in the southern shires, but there’s a spattering of Labour red in the North and Midlands.

These are the sort of areas where Reform is making major in-roads. Only last week, the party came from absolutely nowhere to win a local by-election on Tameside council with 47 per cent of the vote. Then, of course, there’s the Westminster by-election in Runcorn and Helsby, which is deep in Labour territory, but where Reform is positioned to pull-off a stunning victory.

So, for the time being, Farage has absolutely no reason to appear Tory-adjacent. But for how long can he keep triangulating between Labour and the Conservatives?

Until the 2nd May, is the likely answer. Because if Reform finds itself a substantial presence on multiple shire and unitary councils, the party will have some serious decisions to make.

Will they sit in opposition, and let the establishment parties continue with their monopoly in power? Or do they try and make a difference, even if that means doing a deal with opponents? Moreover, which opponents are we talking about?

Independent councillors would be the least problematic option, but those won’t always be available in sufficient numbers. So does Reform have a Plan B? Tim Shipman quotes a “senior figure in Reform” who reckons that on councils where the party is close to a majority, “we’ll get some Tories defecting to help us get full control.” But, again, will there be enough of these?

If Reform is serious about taking control, then it needs a Plan C, i.e. doing deals with the other big parties. I’m assuming that those won’t include the Lib Dems or the Greens, because for all the craziness of British politics right now, there are limits. But what about Reform cooperation with Labour?

A key complication is that Labour councillors are on a shorter leash that those of most other parties: their power-sharing agreements have to be approved centrally. Therefore, an intriguing question is whether Starmer would allow it. On the one hand, openness to Reform might help him hang on to Labour’s traditional working class voters; but on the other, the party’s middle-class Remainery vote would have a fit of the vapours.

Realistically, the “C” in Plan C most likely stands for Conservative. For instance, take a look at Kent County Council. Currently, it has a clear Tory majority – but, by the 2nd May, the map could look very different.

I’m making no firm predictions here, because with five major parties contesting 81 seats under first-past-the-post, who knows what might happen. But imagine that Kent Conservatives end up with 25 councillors, Reform with another 25, the Lib Dems with 15, Labour five, the Greens five, and independents six.

Is Nigel Farage going to abandon his home county to a Con-Lib-whatever coalition – or will his councillors sit down with the Tories? As much fun as it might be opposing the “uniparty”, Kent is on the front line against illegal immigration; what would be the point of Reform if it sat that challenge out?

It’s plausible (though by no means certain) that we’re going to see similar situations play out in counties across England. In which case, we’re going to find out what Reform UK is really made of.

Zia Yusuf, the party’s Chairman, can be congratulated for assembling a full roster of candidates. But that was the easier part of his task. The harder part is making sure he hasn’t selected a freak show; with so many Reform candidates about be elected, we’ll soon see how thorough his due diligence procedures have been.

The next test is whether or not Reform UK groups on councils across England can refrain from descending into internecine conflict (which would require them to do rather better than the group of five Reform MPs elected last year).

Finally, there’s the toughest test of all: whether they can run local authorities, either on their own or in partnership, with a minimum degree of competence and probity.

This is uncharted territory. Currently, Reform only has a handful of councillors across the country and has never come close to running a local authority. UKIP did take control of one district council in 2015 (Thanet), but that didn’t last long.

Now, we’re on the brink of something much more important. While it took the Green Party decades to build up to a position where it could take over the running of councils like Brighton and Bristol, Reform could find itself handed the keys of power literally overnight.

I hope Farage understands just how high the stakes are. He will be humiliated if his councillors screw-up in local government – and you can be sure that they will face harsher scrutiny from the media than any other party.

But more than that, Farage needs to realise that for all of his performative rejection of coalition politics, his party is about to be auditioned as a coalition partner for national government.

On current polling trends, the most likely outcome of the next general election is a hung parliament in which neither Reform nor Labour nor the Conservatives can govern without one of the other two. Given a choice between a grand coalition with Labour or a right-wing coalition with Reform, the overwhelming Tory inclination will be to go with the latter, perhaps even if it means making Farage prime minister.

However, those instincts will be frustrated if negotiating and governing with Reform in local government proves to be a nightmare. Whether it is or not will come down to Farage himself – and his ability to control his own party.

Is he up to it, and are they? It’s too early to tell. But we’re about to live through one of the great clarifying moments of British politics.