Peter Franklin: We need to talk about Nigel Farage’s successor

Peter Franklin is an Associate Editor of UnHerd.

Last week, Reform UK scored 34 per cent in the latest Find Out Now opinion poll — more than Labour (18 per cent) and the Conservatives (15 per cent) put together. That bombshell was followed by another from BMG Research, which gave Reform a 35 percent vote share — a record high for Nigel Farage’s party.

Furthermore, there’s an obvious reason for these numbers. Rather than defusing the migrant hotels controversy, the government has gone out of its way to enrage public opinion. Meanwhile, the Conservative leadership clings doggedly to its own losing strategy, leaving Reform without effective competition on the Right.

It’s therefore no use denying reality. Reform is on course to win the next general election with a clear majority.

Students of psychology may recognise denial as the first stage in the so-called five stages of grief. According to this model, the reaction to traumatic loss begins with denial and then progresses through phases of anger, bargaining, depression and, finally, acceptance. Whether this is actually true is highly contentious — but when it comes to the reaction of the political establishment to the rise of the populist right, the five stages are spot on.

Take the example of Donald Trump.

When he first launched his campaign for the White House, the idea that he might win the 2016 Republican nomination, let alone the Presidency, was roundly mocked. But when he did win, denial gave way to anger with his opponents declaring themselves a “resistance”. The bargaining stage expressed itself in attempts to impeach and even imprison the 45th President of the United States. Now that he’s survived everything thrown at him to retake the White House, the mood among Democrats is one of depression and, in a few cases, acceptance.

The same pattern played out with Brexit. First of all, disbelief that such a thing was possible — which is why David Cameron agreed to a referendum in the first place. The vote to Leave was then followed by the longest hissy fit in modern British political history. That gave way to the bargaining stage — in this case, an attempt to force a second referendum. After that failed in December 2019, depression and acceptance set in.

Now, the political establishment is facing another trauma: the prospect of Nigel Farage as Prime Minister.

The denial stage has more or less exhausted itself — because after the local election results in May it’s clear that the Reform surge is real. So the anti-populist mood has turned angry. Protests outside asylum hotels attract apoplectic counter-protests and the Cross of Saint George is treated like a Swastika. Of course, as the polls prove, the backlash is futile. It’s therefore time for the next stage, which is bargaining — i.e. the hope that the source of upset can somehow be wished away. This is where the arguments get interesting.

For instance, there’s the belief that because no new party has become established in British politics since Labour in the early 20th century, the same will be true of Reform UK. Like the SDP in the 1980s or UKIP in the 2010s, it’s supposedly doomed to follow the same trajectory. Except for those parallels to apply, we’d need a game-changer on the scale of the Falklands War in 1982 or the Brexit Referendum in 2016.

A different scenario relies on Reform snatching defeat from the jaws of victory — through chronic infighting, perhaps, or systematic malpractice in local government. That has the ring of plausibility, but so far, the party’s progress has survived the loss of two MPs, plus the experience of running several county councils. There’s still time for Farage’s minions to mess-up to a more noticeable extent; but they’re competing with the Starmer government here.

If Reform has a fatal vulnerability then in it lies in person of Nigel Farage himself. That’s not because he’s a weak link but, rather, the opposite: the whole of the party’s success depends upon him and is because of him. Instead of Achilles and his heel, Farage is Atlas — holding up Reform’s entire world.

The populist impulse would continue without him, of course – but, thus far, he’s the only outsider politician who can turn it into votes. There’s at least twenty years of evidence to prove that point. Other people have tried to lead populist movements, but no one has come close to Farage’s level of electoral success — not Robert Kilroy-Silk or Lord Pearson or Paul Nuttall or Laurence Fox.

The degree to which it’s all about Nigel is unusual in comparison to other countries.

In France, Marine Le Pen was disqualified by the courts as a presidential candidate, but her heir apparent, Jordan Bardella, was ready to take her place. In Italy, the blundering Matteo Salvini was easily eclipsed by Giorgia Meloni. Even the Trump-worshipping MAGA movement has JD Vance lined up as a successor.

But who replaces Farage when he’s gone?

That’s an open question because, currently, there’s no credible answer. And that’s why, in some quarters, you’ll hear the quietly whispered hope that the Reform leader will somehow go away — taking his party’s hopes of victory with him.

Just to be clear, I’m not hinting at a deep state assassination plot — this is not Russia. However, I wouldn’t rule out “lawfare” — i.e. the use of legal and quasi-legal procedures to discredit, distract and disqualify political opponents. As mentioned, it’s been used against Trump and Le Pen. Furthermore, Parliamentary procedures were successful in driving Boris Johnson out of politics. Of course, Farage would have to open himself up to an effective attack and, to date, he’s been too canny for that.

But what if Atlas shrugs? Farage has a history of a stepping away of his own accord. As UKIP leader he resigned three times — in 2009 (to fight a parliamentary seat), in 2015 (though his resignation wasn’t accepted) and for the last time in 2016, following the Brexit referendum. He quit UKIP altogether in 2018 to found the Brexit Party, but it wasn’t long (2019) before he resigned from that leadership position too. So, it’s not unreasonable to ask whether he’ll go the distance as the head of Reform UK.

One could argue that, with a Reform majority in prospect, he’s got every reason to stay the course. But perhaps that’s the very issue. Farage has certainly sought attention and influence in his career, yet he’s never struck me as being hungry for power. Unusually, for a leading politician, one has to ask whether he genuinely wants to be Prime Minister.

Revealingly, he recently said that he “came out of retirement” to take on the Reform leadership last year. He’s also expressed his exasperation at the sheer busy-ness of his summer: “it has been a total catastrophic disaster”. According to The Times, rumours are spreading around Westminster that Farage’s “relentless schedule” is “taking its toll”.

Of course, “isn’t he looking tired?” is the oldest dirty trick in the book — and Farage with his famous fondness for a pint and a cig is an easy target. But one thing isn’t in doubt: his age (61). If he becomes Prime Minister, he’ll likely be 65, and 70 by the end of his first term. Whatever happens in the years ahead the question as to who succeeds Farage can only grow in urgency.

So what sort of person could it be? He or she would need to be younger. But like Farage, they’d need to be from outside the political establishment, with patriotic values and a comparable measure of cunning, charisma and the common touch. They’d also need to be as effective as he’s been at insulating the populist right from the far right (the actual far right, that is). Pre-loaded public recognition would also help.

There is no such person active in politics right now, but the flurry of interest in Tom Skinner — entrepreneur, influencer and reality TV star — does suggest a growing awareness that the vacancy exists.

There’s a huge amount riding on who does fill Farage’s shoes — because in British populism, the leader is orders of magnitude more important than the political vehicle. As we’ve seen in Farage’s case the machine can be stripped down and rebuilt around the man (or woman). In the absence of a Conservative comeback, the Right — and therefore the future of our nation — will be reshaped around the next populist-in-chief.

We can only hope for the best.