Reform UK and the future of high-stakes politics

The Senedd by-election in Caerphilly was never really going to be one for the Conservatives. You might be able to stretch an argument that not being part of the debate in the area means the party is not doing its job, but it just never had a real likelihood in the first place. So, you know what, over a year into opposition – this inevitability doesn’t feel so bad.

What feels better is that Reform missed out on it too, despite polling slightly ahead and building expectations otherwise. This was won by Plaid Cymru and 72-year-old Lindsay Whittle in his 14th attempt going for the seat. Labour had a 100-year hold on the area up until now; it is a real key heartland loss for the government. Sure, they had their own inevitability which is any government party takes a hit during a by-election – but one only 15 months into governing? In one of their most traditional seats? To lose, not just have your vote dented, marks a disaster for Labour.

This is the day before Starmer is expected to face another loss of his own. Labour is set to announce their new deputy leader tomorrow, with polls predicting Keir Starmer’s preferred candidate, Bridget Phillipson, losing to Lucy Powell, who he threw out of his cabinet.

One of the most interesting things to come out of Caerphilly is that they had a far higher turnout than usual for a by-election – at 50.4 per cent. It is the highest the constituency has ever had in a Senedd contest, and is higher than the national turnout at any Senedd election. And it is telling that the rise of Reform is clearly bringing out more voters, both those who want to back the party and those who want to vote against it.

Reform had reportedly felt so confident in their potential, after spending a lot of time, money and effort on the campaign, that they had plans in place for a celebration.

There was a question floating beforehand about whether progressive voters would group around one alternative to beat Reform – in this case it seemed like Plaid to begin with – and stop a progressive split or usual tribal voting because they recognise that Reform stood an actual chance of being elected. The other established parties on the centre-left failed to take more than 15 per cent between them in the end.

It seems like we have reached this high-stakes politics. Plaid won with 47.4 per cent, Reform trailed behind with 36 per cent and then Labour collapsed to 11 per cent. Us Conservatives were down at 2 per cent, just above the Greens and Liberal Democrats at 1.5 per cent. (Ukip managed to get 22 per cent here when national polling was half what it is now.)

Could this dynamic be replicated more widely where the contest is known to be a party against Reform – and people vote accordingly? The era of a safe seat for the established parties is well and truly diminished.

The idea of five-seat marginals has been spoken of plenty within Westminster recently as polls show the dominance and new entries of alternative political parties like Reform UK but also the Green Party under Zack Polanski. Chatter has already turned, even though we are four years out from another general election, to the idea of tactical voting.

There are MPs worrying that if the Tories move too far right, it will put off those likely progressive tactical voters who might plump for the party in certain seats to keep Reform out.

This may not predict the next election but it may help to illuminate a certain direction of travel for the rest of Britain’s politics – and one where the stakes are high.