Risks To Japan Following Attacks On Iran

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Two Hundred Citizens at Risk

In response to developments in the Middle East, the Japanese government convened an National Security Council (NSC) meeting. Referring to approximately two hundred Japanese nationals then in danger, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi vowed to “take all possible measures to ensure the safety of Japanese nationals.”

It was on the night of Feb. 28 that the Japanese government held this NSC meeting at the Prime Minister’s Office to discuss the Middle East situation following the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, as well as measures to ensure the safety of Japanese nationals in Iran and neighboring countries. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, approximately 200 Japanese nationals are currently in Iran. The Mainichi Shimbun reported that more than 100 Japanese and other nationals had arrived in Japan after fleeing Iran as of March 9. (RELATED: China Tries Both Ways: A Diplomatic Balancing Act)

Also on Feb. 28, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Tokyo had issued a warning to Japanese nationals in Iran, urging them to consider and implement evacuation while commercial flights were still operating. In preparation for the possibility that air travel may become difficult in the future. Japan reportedly later began an evacuation of its nationals by land.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi posted on X (formerly Twitter) on the evening of Feb. 28, “I immediately instructed relevant ministries and agencies to thoroughly gather information and to take all necessary measures to ensure the safety of Japanese nationals remaining there.”

As she entered the Prime Minister’s Office that evening, the Prime Minister told reporters, “I have issued instructions to grasp the situation on sea and air routes, provide information to relevant businesses, and identify the expected economic impact.”

This emphasized her intention to analyze risks and minimize their impact, with the possibility of the situation in Iran continuing for some time.

Swift Action Ensured

On Feb. 28, the government also established an “Information Liaison Office … concerning the situation in Iran” in the Prime Minister’s Office and this office is collecting information from relevant ministries and agencies. Prior to this, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs established an emergency response headquarters headed by Foreign Minister Motegi Toshimitsu, and is preparing to guarantee the safety of Japanese nationals and assist them in leaving the country through diplomatic missions overseas, including the Japanese Embassy in Iran.

In response to a press interview at the Prime Minister’s Office that evening, Prime Minister Takaichi provided an update: “In response to the subsequent escalation of the situation, I also asked that we ascertain information regarding the safety of Japanese nationals not only in Iran and Israel, but also in neighboring countries such as Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, and ensure the safety of those Japanese nationals.” (RELATED: Sky-High Diplomacy: Japan Refuels South Korean Jets)

She then said, “I also also instructed that we ascertain the status of sea and air routes, provide information to the relevant operators, and identify potential economic impacts going forward.”

The Japanese government vowed to continue exchanging information closely with the U.S. and relevant countries in preparation for the situation escalating further.

The government’s top priority was ensuring the safety of Japanese nationals in the Middle East and supporting their evacuation, while also closely monitoring the impact on maritime transport in the Middle East and by extension on Japan’s economy.

Risks Posed if the Strait of Hormuz is Closed  

Widespread analysis predicted that if the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran resulted in a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it would deal a serious blow to the global economy and Japan’s energy and household finances.

Japanese media outlets have detailed the risks of a severance of this lifeline of the Middle East-dependent crude oil and liquefied gas supply route located between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula.

In an article published after the attack on Feb. 28, the Asahi Shimbun newspaper reported that a U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran was raising concerns that Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz. The newspaper speculated that a closure of the Strait would cause a surge in global crude oil prices and a stagnation of the global economy. (RELATED: What Is Going On With The The Strait Of Hormuz?)

The Asahi Shimbun newspaper also noted that more than 90% of Japan’s crude oil imports come from the Middle East, with most of that passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Days later, risks to both the Japanese citizens and the costs of energy for Japan have been significant. The global economy is also at risk.

President Donald Trump has moved to protect the Strait from closure. At the time of publication, it is not clear what effect his remedies will have on this ongoing situation in the Gulf of Arabia.