Robert Cossins: London Conservatives should focus more on housing and tax than on crime

Robert Cossins is a Conservative activist in South West London.

In 2026, Sadiq Khan will have been Mayor of London for a decade. In that time, he’ll have overseen rocketing housing costs, deteriorating nightlife and poorer public services. London is the world’s great City, held back by its political leadership.

Despite this picture, Conservatives have struggled to win elections. Why?

First, let us tackle one misnomer: “London is a Labour City”. To the casual observer, that seems true – Labour-led councils and a Labour City Hall dominate the political scene. It’s a feature outside of London too, with a general urban move towards voting Labour in large cities. However, this ignores the cyclicality of politics – eventually, people get bored of you. The Conservatives can win in London.

Winning the Mayoral election when the Conservatives are in power nationally has been a tall order. But they haven’t helped themselves, and have repeatedly made a series of campaigning errors when they could’ve done better. What’s worse, these mistakes keep being repeated.

Conservatives love to run campaigns on crime. It motivates voter turnout, drives angst, highlights weak incumbents and cuts across demographics. But unfortunately, it doesn’t work. There’s plenty of evidence it doesn’t work, in London at least. How many times does this strategy have to be repeated for the party to figure that out?

Crime doesn’t work as a campaign strategy in London, because for the average person, they feel pretty safe. Crime in London is low compared to other big cities. Crime is also relatively isolated, whether that’s gang-related knife crime, phone thefts on Oxford Street or shoplifting. Most people feel safe. That doesn’t mean crime isn’t important; it just means that it’s not a vote-winning strategy.

Winning back London lies in motivating disaffected Sadiq supporters, not mobilising a shrunken Tory vote. They already turn out proportionally higher than other parties. But voters are incredibly frustrated with Sadiq, so let’s make the most of that – Tories need to mobilise their support.

Let’s take a look at the demographics. What do people in London care about? And how can a campaign be built to mobilise voters away from Sadiq? The average age of people in London is 35, versus 40 for the rest of the UK. It also has a high proportion of the population in work. For a successful London Conservative campaign, we have to figure out what working-age people care about.

I propose three pillars to build a campaign around. This is intended as a basis for discussion, rather than being prescriptive. There’s an alternative world where a strong green campaign would work well too.

• Housing. The housing crisis starts and ends in London. Average property prices are ~15x average salary, compared with 8x nationally. For many voters in London, it’s a reality to spend half your monthly income on rent. It affects everyone, driving up the cost of living. Despite funding from central government, Sadiq has started just 3,026 homes from a target of 35k. Labour’s answer to the housing crisis is social housing. The Conservative answer to this should be extensive housebuilding and lowering tax on landlords to promote housing supply. If they want to be radical, they’ll look at foreign-owed empty properties too.
• London’s Leisure Economy. Under Sadiq, London’s nightlife has collapsed. High taxes, planning restrictions and falling disposable income all contribute. Restaurants and pubs are closing at record rates. A Conservative campaign should be overtly pro-business and focused on actively liberalising London’s nightlife. It can and should be a true 24 hour city.
• Tax. London’s Labour councils have taken council tax to record highs, and Sadiq Khan has increased the GLA share of that tax by the maximum he can. This is a high-taxing city; holding us back. Labour’s answer is more tax, whether that’s ULEZ or higher national insurance contributions from employers, which disproportionately impact the hospitality industry.

Not only will these campaign themes appeal to the demographics of London, but they also present a positive Conservative vision for London. Let’s learn from past mistakes.

London is a work hard, play hard city. The Conservatives have a fantastic opportunity to present a positive vision where Londoners keep more of what they earn, and spend it here in the capital.