Rue Grewal: The by-election mandate and the Conservative dilemma

Rue Grewal is a Councillor, DCM for Hertfordshire Conservatives Area Management Executive and Chair of Hertfordshire Conservative Women’s Organisation.

As I sit in my local coffee shop with the morning papers spread out, scrolling through the latest Twitter posts about council by-elections, I find myself pausing. One post summarises the results of the 91 contests that have taken place since May. It is easy to move from one by-election to the next, treating them as fragments of local politics. But every so often you must stop, step back, and look at the facts in full.

And the facts are sobering. They tell us more about the state of our politics than a dozen speeches at Westminster. They show how anger has hardened, how votes are sorting, and how the political map is being redrawn in front of us. When you sit with those numbers long enough, you realise they demand something stronger than a black coffee.

The council by-elections since May are not local curiosities; they are a map of where politics is really moving. The pattern is unmistakable. Reform UK are holding and gaining. The Liberal Democrats are rebuilding their southern machine. Labour, already in government, is leaking support. And the Conservatives are being squeezed from both flanks.

From 91 by-elections (92 seats) since the 2025 locals:

• Reform UK: 32 seats (+27)
• Liberal Democrats: 25 (+6)
• Conservatives: 11 (–10)
• Labour: 10 (–20)
• Greens: 7 (+3)
  (Independents/locals down overall.)

Two emblematic contests illustrate the point. Bentley, Doncaster, an ex-industrial ward, saw Reform hold with 43.8 per cent, Labour close on 37.6 per cent, and Conservatives collapse to 5.0 per cent. In Addlestone South, Runnymede, a southern commuter belt ward, Reform gained two seats from the Conservatives. The Lib Dems surged to nearly a quarter of the vote. Our own share collapsed by 33 points, and Labour also slipped back.

This is not a blip. Across dozens of wards, anti-government protest is not defaulting to the official opposition. It is fragmenting and concentrating into Reform in working-class/northern seats and Lib Dems in the suburban southern “blue wall.” Labour, as the government, is being punished – yet we are not the beneficiary. So what is the by-election verdict?

Conservatives – contracting from both flanks.
Our vote is eroding at both ends. Core supporters are leaking to Reform in towns and post-industrial areas, while tactical anti-Conservative behaviour is boosting the Lib Dems in the south. The Greens are nibbling where we have already been squeezed into irrelevance. Turnout may be low, but the direction is consistent: our floor is lower than we imagined, and the “coming home” instinct of disaffected Conservatives has not re-emerged.

Labour – first year drag already visible.
For Labour, the warning lights are also flashing. They are underperforming their national brand in by-elections and losing net seats. In northern wards they are being flanked by Reform, while in southern areas their vote is soft and lent tactically to the Lib Dems. The government’s early authority is eroding faster than many expected.

Reform – from protest to placement.
Reform is converting grievance into seats. The Bentley hold and multiple gains prove that they can top the poll even on modest turnouts and with minimal organisation. Their ceiling is untested, but their floor is now real and present across dozens of wards. That makes them not just a spoiler, but a genuine placement party in many communities.

Liberal Democrats – disciplined localism pays.
The Lib Dems are once again proving the old truth: pavement politics works. Where they position themselves as the anti-Conservative vehicle, they are efficient and ruthless. They are re-establishing council beachheads that in time can be leveraged into parliamentary infrastructure.

What Has Changed in a Year

Anger has sorted, not softened. The diffuse frustration of the 2024 general election has hardened. It is now focused on four issues: the cost-of-living squeeze, migration and asylum, crime and antisocial behaviour, and NHS access. Added to this is a moral weariness with “politics as performance”, a sense that too many in public life are talking rather than fixing.

Reform has normalised. Voters no longer treat a cross for Reform as a throwaway gesture. It has become the primary anti-establishment choice in many northern and midlands wards.

The Lib Dem machine is back in the south. Ward-level organisation, relentless leafleting, and tactical alliances with Labour voters mean they are out-working us. They are wearing Labour tactical voters like a glove, turning southern protest into real gains.

Our recovery story has not landed. New leadership and better discipline have not yet translated into a clear and credible offer for squeezed homeowners, working families and skilled workers. We are still not answering the question: why should people trust us again?

The Wrong Strategy and What We Must Do

Too often our national response has been slick graphics, Westminster slogans and continual attacks on Labour. This is a fundamental mistake. Voters are not waiting for clever posters or partisan jeers; they are waiting for someone to fix something tangible in their daily lives. Attacking Labour is not enough, the electorate can already see Labour’s early failures. What they don’t yet see is whether the Conservative Party has listened, learned, and is ready to be trusted again. If this doesn’t change, it is the end of the line for this party.

If today’s by-election dynamics were scaled into a Westminster contest, the picture would be stark:

• Three-way jeopardy: Reform first in swathes of towns; Lib Dem first in southern seats; Labour first in cities and metropolitan belts.
• Vote-share erosion without seat-efficient concentration. Our support is spread too thin where it needs to be deep.
• Lack of “permission to return.” Even voters angry with Labour are not defaulting to us.

What isn’t working is clear:

• Slogans without specificity. Rhetoric does not shift votes. People want measurable changes they can see locally.
• Talking about Reform voters rather than to them. Condescension only hardens the split.
• Managerial technocracy. Announcing reviews and consultations reads as drift and delay.
• Invisible local delivery. Where councillors aren’t visibly winning small fights, residents assume we’ve given up.

Then it comes to what we must do now (non-negotiables) and one of the key things is to rebuild the “permission structure.” Near-term, visible commitments on migration/order, costs/work, and queues/access. Publish milestones, hit them, and report them.

Compete with Reform on seriousness, not rhetoric. Speak plain English on borders and order; pair it with delivery metrics. Field candidates with credibility from uniformed services and skilled trades who cut through “politics as usual.”

Beat Lib Dems with ruthless localism. Every ward should carry a fix list: five tangible wins per quarter, published and delivered. Hyper-local literature must show the potholes repaired, the bus stops fixed, the planning applications fought.

Discipline the map. In the North and Midlands: patriotic fairness, border and order credibility, and visible action on the street. In the South and Blue Wall: planning, property, policing, and parental priorities, combined with pavement politics that out-organises the Lib Dems.

Candidate and message quality control. No passengers. Every candidate must carry a 90-day ward plan, a weekly contact target, and a three-issue stump tied to their community.

The next 100 days must be about proof, not promises.

• Publish monthly scorecards wherever we lead, showing what has been fixed.
• Name three national delivery milestones and hit them in public.
• Target 30 must-hold or must-flip wards with full organiser kits, doorstep scripts, and digital content matching local fix lists.

The Choice Ahead

If a snap election were called tomorrow, today’s by-election map implies three things. Labour is vulnerable, but not to us by default. Reform can spoil or steal, unless we win back their voters with seriousness and delivery. And the Lib Dems are seat-efficient wherever we are second and sleepy.

Without visible delivery and sharper contrasts, Reform will consolidate in northern towns; Lib Dems will cannibalise our southern map; and Labour will coast on a divided opposition. With disciplined local wins, a credible border and order plan, and cost-of-living relief that people can feel, we can re-open the permission gate for centre-right voters to come home.

So many papers, blogs and blue-on-blue post-mortems have been written since the election about what we must do. Yet I do not see enough coming out the other end. It is frustrating and it should be frightening. The writing is on the wall.

We are only weeks from conference. For me, the future of our party rides on what we hear and commit to deliver at that conference. Not presentations. Not rhetoric. Not excuses.

We want proof – proof that this party still has the seriousness, the discipline, and the courage to win back the country.