Scarlett Maguire: Voter despair is strangling any prospect of a Conservative revival

Scarlett Maguire is a pollster, and founder of Merlin Strategy.

In Britain we have become all too used to endless bad news stories and depressing headlines. Sadly, the findings from the latest Merlin Strategy X Looking For Growth tracker make for no more uplifting reading. The message from the public is clear: Brits feel poor, think the country is broken, and their trust in politicians to fix it has all but evaporated.

The numbers: 68 per cent say that the country is ‘in decline’ and 65 per cent say that it is ‘already broken.’ Only 32 per cent say they feel positive about Britain’s future. Even more astonishingly, 76 per centsay they are worried about the potential for political violence.

It’s against this backdrop of relentless pessimism in public opinion that today’s politics should be understood. Voters are fed up after years of economic stagnation, struggling public services, and an immigration system people do not feel is working for them.

An under-appreciated contributing factor is the long recovery from the Covid pandemic, particularly in areas outside of London and the South East: 42 per cent of voters say they feel worse off since Covid, compared to just 33 per cent who feel better off. The pandemic didn’t just erode people’s living standards but also trust in institutions and political leadership.

These feelings about the country and its governing class are driving voters away from so-called mainstream politics and politicians; the Conservatives have only gone backwards since their worst ever defeat in a general election, and the combined total of Labour and Conservatives is just 40 per cent, the same as Jeremy Corbyn’s share of the vote at the 2017 general election.

Those interested in how the struggling Conservative party can turn things around should look at that crucial link between pessimism and populism. Yes, Reform holds a substantial lead on the issue of immigration, an issue voters generally – and Reform voters in particular – care strongly about. But this isn’t the only reason behind Reform’s surge in the polls.

Nor is it just down to the appeal of Nigel Farage; n fact, Reform now has higher favourability ratings than its leader. Any attempts from the Conservatives to regain support from Farage’s party must address voters’ overwhelming sense of pessimism about the country’s prospects as well as their own personal futures.

Reform supporters feel worse off than their peers, are more angry about the state of the country, and are so worried about the status quo that they think civil unrest is even more likely. Only 41 per cent of Reform voters feel confident about their household finances, compared to 60 per cent of Conservative voters and 59 per cent of Labour voters.

Reform voters are almost doubly as pessimistic about the future of the country than Conservative voters, with 59 per cent feeling pessimistic about Britain’s future, compared to 33 per cent of Conservatives; 84 per centt of Reform voters feel angry about the state of the country, compared to 59 per cent of the Conservatives.

For all of these issues, current Reform voters bear greater resemblance to current Green voters than to Conservatives. These voters have lost any faith in mainstream parties to deliver meaningful change that they can feel in their day-to-day lives, whereas those still sticking to the traditional two parties are more likely to feel better off and optimistic.

Reform’s current slogan, “Britain is broken. Britain needs Reform,” plays into this profound sense of disillusionment amongst the public. According to our tracker, 79 per cent of people feel that Westminster politicians have moved too slowly and 82 per centt they would be more likely to support politicians who show they are prepared to take radical action.

When people feel so hopeless about their current situation they start to perceive less risk in taking a chance than in opting for the status quo.

The problem for the Conservatives is that they have failed to rebuild trust whilst still looking very much like that status quo. The party brand remains in the doldrums, with less than one in five of the voting electorate currently intending to vote for them.

Whilst Kemi Badenoch polls less unfavourably than Rishi Sunak during that election campaign, the party’s ratings have remained broadly as terrible as when he left office. Changes in policy direction have been less than forthcoming, and the front bench looks much the same.

Any changes the party has made have gone yet unnoticed by the British public. The public cannot see anything meaningfully different about the latest iteration of the Conservative Party, and even though many feel that Labour have been no better, there is, as yet, no incentive for them to go back to the Tories.

If the Tories are to survive in this last chance saloon for mainstream politics, the Tories must demonstrate they are capable of much more profound, radical change than they have to date.