Shadow Cabinet League Table: Huge Badenoch bounce post-conference

For fans of ConservativeHome’s league tables, you have a veritable feast today as we present our Shadow Cabinet League Tables pre and post-conference.

There are a few stand-out points across each graph: members seem to have rediscovered their optimism, with polls that began flat or even negative now awashed with blue, but the most important being the position of Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch.

She has gone from fourth place at +28.3 before conference to a very close second place after a strong conference performance at + 60.0 – just behind Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick who tops both pre and post-conference tables, but only by +0.2 after the Tories’ time in Manchester.

Pre-Conference:

Pressure was building for Badenoch ahead of Manchester but in the pre-conference poll the top three remained Jenrick, Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp and Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride.

The trio have taken up the medal spots for most of our latest League Tables, with Jenrick always up top alongside Philp and Stride vying for silver and bronze.

Our pre-conference table still marked a steady increase in Badenoch’s placement from ConHome’s previous Shadow Cabinet League Table where she came fifth, now swapping positions with Shadow Business Secretary Andrew Griffith.

Six members of the shadow cabinet fell into minus numbers in the run up to conference, with Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel landing in the unfortunate – but someone has to get it – bottom ranking.

However, the Tories’ time in Manchester proves that everything is to play for…

Post-Conference:

Just look at that leap for Badenoch – there is no doubt that she and her Loto team will be happy with that. (Remember that time earlier this year where she hit nil points (0.0) in our polling.)

Although Jenrick retain his crown, there is a slight dip by -9.2 in his post-conference results, with Badenoch hot at his heels in a dramatic 31.7 point surge. Her confident speech in Manchester – aiming to set out the Tory Party’s mission – clearly resonated with the grassroots and articulated the vision they have been looking for.

The top five all record strong results which saw Stride hop just above Philp with a 12 point increase on his results post-conference. Shadow Energy Secretary Claire Countinho saw a marked increasing, vaulting up into fifth place on +38.8 in a rise of more than 18 points post-conference. Her performance in Manchester – focused on not just energy costs but security and infrastructure, with a determination to take down Labour’s Ed Miliband, has elevated her profile among members who increasingly see her as one of the Party’s articulate communicators.

A striking feature of the post-conference table is how few frontbenchers remain in negative territory, Before conference, six figures languished below zero – among them only two, in Shadow Science Secretary Julia Lopez (-0.2) and Shadow Transport Secretary Richard Holden (-4.6), remained after Manchester.

Patel had quite a remarkable turnaround, jumping nearly 23 points to take her back into the positives at +12.4, with something of a rehabilitation among the membership’s views. Shadow Defra Secretary Victoria Atkins too sees a dramatic reversal, up almost 20 points.

Neil O’Brien, who is now in cabinet and responsible for the Party’s renewal programme, may be middling when it comes to the membership’s perspective – but if you were to ask his colleagues to rank shadow cabinet appointments, he may come top. Tory MPs often tell ConservativeHome about the immensely positive impact his appointment has made on the Party’s long-term vision.

Beyond the individual movements, the broader pattern is clear. Our pre-conference survey captured a subdued party. The post-conference results, in contrast, suggest a membership energised by the Party’s Manchester outing and a clarified narrative; the reset moment did what it needed to do. Members appear more optimistic – not necessarily about imminent victory, but about the party’s sense of direction.

There is no doubt that this is some good personal polling for Badenoch when she has desperately needed it – but there is a sentiment shared across some in her shadow cabinet, ministerial team and backbenches, who keep reminding ConHome: “What matters is if this shifts the dial for the Party’s polling. If not, people will look at what we do need to shift.”