Shadow Cabinet League Table: Jenrick’s lead continues – as Holden enters in last place

Robert Jenrick’s dominance appears to be unassailable. This month’s Shadow Cabinet League Table places him comfortably on top, yet again, with +70.4 – almost identical to the towering +71.0 he posted last month.

The shadow justice secretary’s popularity has become entrenched. With a relentless presence in the media, steady stream of almost ‘direct action’ style videos – from tube fare dodgers to illegal immigrants in Dunkirk – and sharp political positioning, he continues to draw the membership’s attention.

You can’t help but make the comparison with Tory leader Kemi Badenoch who comes in fifth place, which actually marks a vast improvement over recent months. Back in May, she was languishing at 0.0, or net zero as people in Parliament joked. Just last month, she had climbed to +18.1. Now she has reached +19.4 – a tangible recovery, but still only a fraction of Jenrick’s total. The improvement is there, but it is a work in progress, not a resurgence.

Behind Jenrick, shadow chancellor Mel Stride and shadow home secretary Chris Philp have ended up sharing second place on +41.5 apiece. Both are down on their July highs — Stride on +48.0, Philp on +46.2 — but remain well ahead of the chasing pack. The pair have been vying for second and third place over recent months and it offers a neat contrast in style: Stride’s steadiness versus Philp’s duracell bunny energy, but both trying to court the media.

It should be flagged that, since April, shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith has been able to maintain his fourth place ranking; a steady performer, bringing personal experience to his brief.

The latest league table also shows the first results of Badenoch’s shadow cabinet reshuffle, which was a rather contained one; a recalibration rather than a revolution. One of the most notable returns was James Cleverly, brought back onto the front benches in the Housing brief to take on Angela Rayner. His score of +14.7 suggests the move has had some positive effect, placing him just behind Claire Coutinho who has returned from maternity leave on +15.0. New entry Neil O’Brien, entrusted with the policy renewal and development brief, posts +9.0 – a steady position for his first time in the shadow cabinet.

Not all reshuffle beneficiaries have enjoyed such a positive start. Richard Holden, promoted to shadow transport secretary, has entered in dead last at -14.9, making him the most unpopular figure in the table. In his case, the promotion appears to have highlighted pre-existing concerns within the membership – perhaps it could have something to do with that time he was party chairman and got accused of doing a chicken run to a safer seat …

Figures like Laura Trott, Alex Burghart, and James Cartlidge hold steady in the low double digits – reliable but not commanding the headlines. It was an interesting choice that despite her lukewarm polling with the membership (on +10.8) she was still selected by George Osborne as part of the group of senior Tories, and potential leadership hopefuls, to meet US Vice President JD Vance earlier this week.

Further down, the soft negatives of Victoria Atkins (-1.4), Priti Patel (-2.2), Helen Whately and Mims Davies (both -2.6) point to minor discontent. The deeper drops for Jesse Norman (-4.0), Stuart Andrew (-5.3), and Julia Lopez (-13.3) suggest a bigger problem. Lopez, in particular, has seen a sharp deterioration following her promotion from PPS to Badenoch to shadow secretary of state for science and technology, placing her only marginally ahead of Holden in the league’s basement.

Compared to July’s numbers, the trends are clear. Jenrick’s commanding lead remains pretty much unchanged. Badenoch’s recovery is notable but incomplete – her score is much improved, yet she still trails far behind the top tier. The reshuffle has produced mixed results: Cleverly and O’Brien have seen a decent entry onto the table, while Holden’s promotion has placed him dead last.

The lesson seems to be much the same in that visibility and media cut-through benefits ratings, and Badenoch’s effort on this front is starting to pay off. Her task now is to turn a modest rebound into a sustained rise – and to encourage her reshuffle appointments, particularly those in trouble, to do the same and get the full team working.