SHOSHANA BRYEN: The Landscape Has Changed

Israel is the undisputed regional Strong Horse.

That is not to shortchange the U.S. contribution. With just 75 precision-guided munitions, including 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs, and a barrage of Tomahawk missiles, the U.S. was restored to strategic prominence in the region as well. Zero U.S. casualties. Zero Iranian retaliation (performance fire at Qatar doesn’t count). Zero American “boots on the ground.” And an understanding in the region that the U.S. will support its friends and allies – Israel in this case – when push and shove come together.

That is an understanding long missing in the region, and it redraws the landscape.

For years I lectured on Middle East security. The premise was that America’s insistence on “The Arab Spring” – preceded by President Bill Clinton’s Oslo Accords and “Two State solution” – was a failure that led to the rise of Iran with the support of China and Russia. The governments of Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Iraq, and Syria underwent revolution. The foundations of Lebanon, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Morocco, The UAE, Bahrain, and the Palestinian Authority (PA) were shaken.  And to the extent that the Bush and Obama administrations were pushing American-style governments and political parties using American troops and American bombing campaigns in those efforts, American stature fell – culminating in the debacle of Afghanistan.

Libya’s civil war unleashed vast quantities of arms into Chad, Mali, and Niger. The wars across Africa were ISIS-operated by Boko Haram in Nigeria and al-Shabaab in Sudan but equipped and funded in large measure by Iran. There are more than 35 non-international armed conflicts taking place in Africa. Hundreds of thousands of people – specifically Christians and civilians – have died in the past decade in Mozambique, Democratic Republic of Congo and elsewhere as well as the countries named above.

China and Russia lined up behind the Islamic Republic primarily to harm U.S. interests. China supplied Iran with weapons in exchange for oil, and Beijing took advantage of upheaval in Africa to gain exclusive access to raw materialsincluding rare earth minerals, in countries at war. Russia received drones and other weapons for the Ukraine war.

The three, together with North Korea, were the “Axis of Evil,” planning to control waterways, important natural resources, and the lives of people across the Middle East and Africa – while sowing instability in Europe with masses of migrants fleeing local wars and aiding in the building of Iran’s nuclear weapons capability.

Destabilization was their watchword, and Israel was left to hold the line.

Israel fought to keep its people safe; offering Mahmoud Abbas statehood for Palestinians three times; and fought to shore up security in Judea and Samariawhen the PA failed to stop the infiltration of Hamas. Israel shored up the King of Jordan when Iran threatened the Hashemite Kingdom directly and indirectly. Jerusalem provided gas, water, and electricity to Gaza along with 20,000 work permits (at Israeli wages) to help Gazans decide that Israel wasn’t a bad neighbor. It provided medical assistance to Syrians during the Syrian civil war that killed more than 500,000 people (that’s when the U.N. stopped counting). It signed a Maritime Border Agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon, in hopes of creating quiet for both sides.

It could never be enough, especially in the Obama administration and its follow-on, the Biden administration, both of which thought giving Iran money and legitimacy would either make the mullahs cooperative or at least make them hold off the final production of nuclear weapons until a bit later.

The crash was 10/7, but it wasn’t recognized at the time.

The Hamas orgy of murder and destruction in Israel was designed to prevent Israel and Saudi Arabia from reaching an agreement. Hamas leadership assumed everyone would help – specifically, Hezbollah, the Houthis. and Iran. Hezbollah did, for a minute, and the Houthis did. But Israel sequentially decimated their leadership and their capabilities.

IDF destruction of tunnels plus the execution of Hamas leadership; pagers and the destruction of Hezbollah missiles and launchers in Southern Lebanon, plus the execution of Hezbollah leadership; decimation of Iranian military assets in Syria, opening the space in for the ouster of the Assad regime and the Iranians; destruction of Houthi assets in Yemen, including the Sanaa airport. Throw in the humiliation of UNRWA, exposed as an active Hamas partner.

What was left was Iran.

President Donald Trump made it clear that Iran had a choice – to give up its nuclear program in a verifiable way and not attack Israel – or face consequences. It chose badly. The IDF attacked missile launchers, drone factories, missile factories, nuclear facilities and nuclear scientists. The U.S. Air Force performed magnificently, adding on to Israel’s successes with precise hits on Iran’s nuclear reactor and enrichment sites.

The cooperation and coordination between U.S. and Israeli forces in the region was amazing. Watching it, King Abdullah of Jordan not only announced that Jordan would not support Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and The UAE actively assisted Israel’s forces. Saudi Arabia and Lebanon are considering the Abraham Accords. Syria has been talking directly to Israel about ending hostilities and not demanding the Golan Heights.

On the other side, Russia condemned the U.S. strikes, but took no action to support Iran. China offered Iran exactly nothing. Don’t think the Africans aren’t watching – the DRC-Rwanda agreement presented by President Trump is a signal.

It will take time and clever diplomacy for the results to be fully cemented. But for now, precise bombs and clever diplomacy are working for the good guys for the first time in a long time.

Shoshana Bryen is Senior Director of The Jewish Policy Center and Editor of inFOCUS Quarterly.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

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