South Florida Could See Snow Due To Rare Gulf-Effect Event

A surge of Arctic cold air is set to sweep into Florida this weekend, bringing with it an extremely rare opportunity for snowfall across the Gulf Coast.

Portions of the state from the Florida Panhandle southward to the Fort Myers/Naples region stand a chance of seeing snowflakes, however, the probability remains very low overall.

Current forecast guidance indicates a 10–20% chance of snow flurries across the coast late Saturday night and continuing through Sunday morning, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). (RELATED: Winter Storm Gianna: Looming Nor’easter Could Develop Into Hurricane-Force Bomb Cyclone With Target On East Coast)

This unusual setup could produce small bands of light snowfall through a process known as “Gulf-effect” snow — similar to lake-effect snow but driven by cold air passing over the warmer waters of the Gulf of America.

The nor’easter forecast to affect multiple states across the East Coast this weekend is also helping to funnel a rare deep pool of cold air far south into Florida.

Remaining moisture associated with the storm could interact with this frigid cold air mass Saturday night, possibly resulting in scattered flurries or a rain/snow mixture across the Gulf Coast.

Did you say SNOW is in the forecast this weekend?!? 😱

There is a 10% to 20% of snow flurries along the coast late Saturday night and into Sunday morning. We do not expect this to stick to the ground✅

Cold, blustery conditions are still the main impact this weekend #flwx pic.twitter.com/jF1VQt0kV7

— NWS Tampa Bay (@NWSTampaBay) January 28, 2026

Gulf-effect snow, a rare phenomenon, occurs when extremely cold Arctic air sweeps across the warmer Gulf waters. The air near the surface warms moderately, becomes buoyant and rises rapidly into the colder air above, develops clouds, and generates snowfall downwind — provided there is a sufficient fetch of northwest winds to lift moisture and a large enough temperature contrast between the water and the overlying air.

The greater the difference in temperature, the more quicker the air lifts and the higher the likelihood of snowfall. In this case, however, the chance for any rain/snow mixture Saturday night remains low, and even if a few flakes fall, they would almost certainly melt instantly upon contact with the ground.

Any snow along the Gulf Coast of Florida is an exceptionally rare event, particularly across the peninsula. (RELATED: Polar Vortex Brings Rare, Historic Deep Freeze To Florida; Miami Could See Lowest Temperatures In 16 Years)

Tampa has tallied measurable snowfall only twice historically: 0.2 inches (Jan. 19, 1977) and 0.1 inches (Feb. 13, 1899). Naples, which also has the possibility to see flurries, has never received measurable snowfall, according to FOX Weather.

Flurries have occasionally been reported in Central Florida, however, snow accumulation is extremely rare in the region because of the typically warm ground and Gulf of America water temperatures.