Starmer Bracing for Major Upset in Runcorn and Helsby By-Election – Guido Fawkes

Starmer Bracing for Major Upset in Runcorn and Helsby By-Election

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Thursday’s Runcorn and Helsby by-election is Reform UK’s best shot yet at delivering a major blow to Starmer (who faces his first parliamentary by-election as PM). Reform came second in the constituency with 18% at the general election and it is Labour’s 16th safest seat, held since 1983. Though ex-Labour MP Mike Amesbury punching a constituent in the face is unlikely to be forgotten by voters…

Reform has rented a unit in Runcorn’s shopping mall to base their campaign HQ for their candidate and ex-magistrate Sarah Pochin. Farage has visited three times, Tice has visited twice, and both Lee Anderson and James McMurdock once during the campaign. Reform promised to throw the ‘kitchen sink’ at the seat after Amesbury was suspended and they have done so…

Both Pochin and Labour’s candidate, retired teacher Karen Shore (who had a constituent slam a door in her face earlier today), have pledged to shut down the infamous ‘migrant hotel’ in Daresbury – a hot-button issue on the doorstep. Predictably, both sides are calling the race “very tight” and “too close to call”. A Reform spokesman tells Guido: “This is going to be a close run by-election in a seat where Labour should be easily expected to hold it.” Sources close to Nigel Farage are briefing that he’s not expecting a win. Labour is also managing expectations, saying that this by-election “came about in very difficult circumstances and we’re campaigning for every vote. It’s going to be close, but Nigel Farage’s party was in pole position from the start”. Beyond the spin it does actually feel very close…

The Tories – who came third place with just 16% in the general election – will be doing well to maintain any kind of respectable vote share. A Tory spokesman says “Runcorn should be a safe Labour seat – especially after the Government’s supermajority just 9 months ago. But Labour’s policies have been a punch in the face for local residents.” It’s worth noting that boundary changes mean over half the old Weaver Vale constituency – which had been Tory-held since 2010 – has been folded into Runcorn and Helsby. This benefits Reform…

Meanwhile, Britain Elects is projecting the turnout to be between 55-68%, with Labour just clinging on: 36% to Reform’s 35%. A margin of around 400 votes. All to play for…