‘Super El Niño’ Looming Amid La Niña Dwindling Prior To Peak Of 2026 Hurricane Season

The latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climate forecast indicates that the current La Niña pattern is conking out. Within the next month, neutral conditions are expected to become dominant, while forecast models are showing an increasing probability of a powerful — and possibly even Super — El Niño developing in the heart of the hurricane season.

With the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), El Niño is one of three phases, which detail the natural climate cycle driven by fluctuations in the temperatures of the Pacific Ocean and atmospheric motion that is able to significantly influence weather patterns across the world.

El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, La Niña by cooler-than-average temperatures and ENSO-neutral by conditions around the long-term average.

In terms of hurricane season, El Niño typically suppresses tropical activity in the Atlantic by increasing upper-level wind shear, which disrupts the organization and strengthening of developing storms. Generally speaking, the more strong an El Niño is, the greater the suppressive effect. (RELATED: 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Be Heavily Impacted By Potentially Powerful El Niño)

In the last few weeks, multiple long-range forecast models raised the odds of a powerful El Niño developing in the upcoming hurricane season.

International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), a specialized research organization affiliated with Columbia University that aggregates around 20 dynamical and statistical climate models into one summary, has become notably more hawkish in its outlook. In February, the forecast was for water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to hit a peak close to 0.7 degrees over the average  — an El Niño on the weaker side. The latest update now projects temperatures reaching nearly 1.5 degrees above the average mark by October.

This aligns with the forecast from NOAA and keeps highlighting the increasing likelihood of a powerful, or possibly Super, El Niño in the 2026 hurricane season.

In years where there are El Niño events, the Atlantic basin typically produces an average of about 10 named storms and five hurricanes.

HURRICANE HQ 🌀: El Niño is expected to develop as La Niña fades—but what does that mean for hurricane season? FOX Weather Meteorologist Jane Minar explains what you need to know, including how past El Niño years have performed during peak hurricane season. pic.twitter.com/dsNqpAsUrc

— FOX Weather (@foxweather) March 22, 2026

By contrast, La Niña years are usually more active, averaging around 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.

With that being said, several factors steer seasonal activity, such as Atlantic sea surface temperatures, which are currently around or just above the average. The warm waters generate additional fuel for tropical development.

This creates a tug-of-war between El Niño’s unfavorable wind shear and the supportive warmth of the Atlantic Ocean, according to the FOX Forecast Center.

Killing 65 people and causing over $25 billion in damage, Hurricane Andrew, for example, developed in an El Niño year, which came in 1992.

In recent history, 2023 saw record-warm Atlantic waters largely offset the typical suppressive effects of El Niño, resulting in the fourth most-active Atlantic hurricane season on record. (RELATED: Hurricane Season ’26: Here Are Storm Names For Weather’s Most Powerful Force)

A storm from that season was Hurricane Idalia, which caused roughly $3 billion in damage after striking Florida’s Big Bend region.

Comparisons of hurricane seasons are never an exact science, however, examples show how one strong storm can cause catastrophic impacts.

Another critical factor is the timing of El Niño’s development.

If El Niño establishes itself rapidly by the middle of the summer, activity could be significantly limited at the peak months of the season. With that being said, if the change is more gradual, there could potentially be an opportunity for development early in the season in June and July, according to the FOX Forecast Center.