Supreme Court may deal Democrats a huge blow to ever taking House back

The U.S. Supreme Court is poised to consider a major challenge that could reshape how voting maps are drawn, potentially giving Republicans a significant advantage in upcoming elections.

The justices agreed Friday to expand a Louisiana case and weigh arguments about whether the 1965 Voting Rights Act still justifies creating districts specifically designed to elect Black or Hispanic representatives. The case will examine whether racial considerations should play a role in redrawing electoral maps.

A ruling that limits the application of the Voting Rights Act could have effects on congressional and local legislative districts across the country, particularly in the South. A decision that limits race-based districting could benefit the GOP, helping it recover the one seat it lost in Alabama and Louisiana due to court-ordered redistricting in the last election cycle. It could also open the door for Republicans to pick up additional seats in other Southern states where district lines have been drawn with racial considerations in mind.

Currently, the U.S. House includes 11 majority-Black and 31 majority-Hispanic districts, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of 2022 data. Republicans expanded their Senate control in the last election, winning 53 seats compared to the Democrats’ 45, with two Independents caucusing with the latter. Republicans currently hold an eight-seat majority in the House, a margin that includes vacancies created by the recent deaths of three Democratic lawmakers.

The Supreme Court case unfolds amid renewed redistricting battles in the South, including a brewing showdown in Texas. Texas Democrats are once again weighing whether to flee the state to block a GOP-led redistricting push ahead of the 2026 midterms, mirroring their dramatic walkout in 2003. That year, over 50 Democratic lawmakers fled the state to prevent a quorum, but Republicans ultimately pushed through a new map that helped them pick up five House seats in the 2004 elections.

Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott already signed off on new maps after the 2020 Census, which shaped the 2022 elections. Democrats currently control just 12 of Texas’ 38 congressional seats—making any further GOP-driven map changes potentially decisive in maintaining or expanding the party’s slim House majority.

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