The Missing Definition of Victory in Iran | The American Spectator

Our war against Iran is now in its third week. President Trump has said,  “We took a little excursion” to the Middle East “to get rid of some evil. And, I think you’ll see it’s going to be a short-term excursion.” Later last week he said. “We’ve won, let me tell you, we’ve won.”

Neither of those statements is true which is not to say we won’t or can’t win. Unfortunately, the president still hasn’t said what he means by “winning” or what we want to achieve in Iran.

Some 13 U.S. servicemen have died so far in this war. Included among them are four Air Force members who died when their KC-135 air refueling tanker collided with another aircraft over Iraq. At this point we don’t know why the aircraft collided or what caused the crash.

As far back as 2005, I had written an article for The American Spectator explaining that the KC-135 should be replaced with a more modern tanker. (The KC-135 had an “initial operational capability — went into deployment — in June 1957.) We have about 340 KC-135s of various ages. Most are ancient and suffer from over-stressed wing roots and such. The Air Force is trying to replace them with the KC-46, another Boeing product, which is beset with too many technical problems.

Without dredging up too many memories, I recall interviewing Gen. John Jumper, then USAF chief of staff, for that article. Gen. Jumper told me, “We are global air and space power because of these tankers.” He added, “The first thing that happens in any contingency is that you put the tanker bridge up there. We deploy tankers to places such as Spain, Hawaii, Guam and their sole purpose is to get large transport aircraft halfway around the world without stopping.”

No tankers, no superpower. It’s long past time to replace the KC-135s.

We haven’t won the war against Iran yet, as is demonstrated by their ability to launch missiles and drones against Israel, against ships around the Strait of Hormuz and against neighboring nations. This week, ships aren’t passing through the Strait because of the fear of Iranian mines, missiles, and drones. The U.S. embassy in Iraq’s helipad was struck by an Iranian missile and a fire broke out at the UAE port of Fujairah after a drone interception.

Ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz usually carry about 20 percent of the world’s oil consumption. Iran has succeeded in closing the Strait. Reportedly no mines have been laid in the Strait but ships’ captains are not convinced and are worried about drone strikes on their ships. Mr. Trump has asked European nations and others to provide naval escorts through the Strait. So far, none have.

President Trump has said we have destroyed military facilities on Kharg Island but the port, which sends out most of Iran’s oil exports, hasn’t been closed. It’s entirely possible, as I wrote weeks ago, that Mr. Trump assured China of a continuing supply (China buys about 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports) but that supply has nevertheless been interrupted. That weakens China and it will get weaker as long as that supply of oil is interrupted.

U.S. and Israeli air bombardment has succeeded in taking out most of Iran’s ability to fire missiles and drones but not all of it.

Iran’s new “supreme leader” is Mojtaba al-Khamenei, the son of its previous “supreme leader.” He has not been seen for about a week and may be severely injured or dead. The Iranians, naturally, claim he is hale and hearty.

But no one — not even the son of the late Shah — has been able to establish a new government, even one in exile. Mr. Trump has made many pleas to the Iranian people to rise up but they are still too afraid of the regime to do so.

So where do we go from here? It is pretty clear that we will have to deploy ground troops to really end the ayatollahs’ regime. About 5,000 more Marines and sailors are on the way to Iran. If the Marines are landed their small force will not be capable of removing the regime without help from the Iranian people.

If we are to truly end the regime there will be a need to deploy many more troops there, perhaps thousands. Mr. Trump wanted to end our “endless wars” but his action in Iran may take many months — even years — to do so.

But stop right there. We know, from our experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, that we cannot engage in nation-building in Iran. Not in any form. When and if the regime falls, we should get the hell out. If we need to bomb the snot out of them again, so be it.

Without clear aims, Mr. Trump is losing the support of the American people. It may be too late for him to make the Oval Office speech that I’ve written about to explain to Americans just what our goals in Iran are, but he could nevertheless try. He must if this war is going to go on much longer. Which it will.

READ MORE from Jed Babbin:

The First Week of Mission: Iran

War With Iran: Justified Strike, Uncertain Horizon

The Board of Peace and the Illusion of Gaza