The reactions from Westminster’s think tanks are in. It’s a bad day to be a humble wonk hoping for some growth and stability. Deep breath…
The Adam Smith Institute’s Joanna Marchong: “The Chancellor has convinced herself of economic stability based on deeply outdated forecasts. It is a Statement written by spin doctors, not economists. After last year’s Autumn Budget, Reeves needed to show that those sacrifices were not in vain and deliver growth. OBR forecasts, even though they don’t reflect current shocks, appear to show her rules are just about intact, but growth is lacklustre and the UK is far from credible.”
The IEA’s Julian Jessop: “The Chancellor sent a signal of ‘steady as she goes’ today but what was really needed is a change of course. There is little sign that the government’s economic plan is working. In particular, the OBR’s forecasts for growth have been revised down and those for unemployment have been revised up. Inflation is at least projected to fall a little more quickly, but this forecast has already been overtaken by the surge in energy prices following the escalation of the crisis in the Middle East.”
The TaxPayers’ Alliance’s John O’Connell: “The idea that the chancellor has restored economic stability will sound like a sick joke to taxpayers suffering under this government… Everyone with a pair of eyes can see the services and infrastructure they pay for are crumbling before their eyes, and yet the chancellor has the cheek to tell them it’s all going marvellously. Enough’s enough – this country needs politicians who will put families and businesses first, and that means cutting spending and handing it back to taxpayers through big tax cuts.”
The Centre for Social Justice’s Joe Shalam: “The Government wanted this spring forecast to be a non-event. But as the global outlook darkens, business as usual is patently not enough. Instead, ministers must now do everything they can to get Britain working and the economy fired up by ending the scandal of millions trapped on welfare. We already spend more on health benefits than the entire defence budget in what is a monumental waste of human potential. Repairing broken Britain is ultimately a matter of national security in a fast-changing world.”
The Centre for Policy Studies‘ Robert Colvile: “The Spring Forecast was, like Britain’s economic performance, an overwhelming disappointment. Indeed, a Chancellor can rarely have sounded so excited to announce a downgrade in growth. The Chancellor may well be right to limit policy changes to the autumn Budget – although the Government’s record on U-turns rather gives the lie to that ambition. But the result is that, instead of a proper fiscal statement, we were treated to a parade of empty and often misleading boasts, citing statistics no one else could read – with barely a reference to ongoing global events which may render much of the analysis completely meaningless.”
Onward’s Simon Clarke, keeping it brief via X: “Well that was utterly pointless and despair inducing. Moving on.”
Policy Exchange’s Iain Mansfield: “Nothing in the Spring Statement alters the fact that Britain’s economy is in no state to weather another crisis. With growth downgraded, debt at around 95% of GDP and almost a million young people not in work or education, a prolonged spike in energy costs could push Britain to the brink.
The Labour loyalist Institute for Public Policy Research’s Harry Quilter-Pinner, asking Reeves to build on her supposed economic “momentum“: “…Lower net migration poses a medium-term risk to public finances, while renewed conflict in the Middle East risks pushing up energy prices and adding to inflationary strain on households and businesses. The real test now is not short-term headroom but building on the economic momentum. The Spring Statement has bought the government time, it must now use it. That means focusing on broadening industrial strategy beyond energy into defence and advanced manufacturing, and doubling down on a ‘war on bills’ to tackle the cost-of-living crisis.” Good luck…
Even the Resolution Foundation’s chief Ruth Curtice is unmoved: “Disappointed not to see any immediate action on NEETs in particular. With almost one in six young people who want to work unable to find a job, they deserve clarity on minimum wage policy and an expanded Jobs Guarantee scheme now. [The] Chancellor appeared to promise action soon.”
The tax burden is set to reach a post-war high, and the welfare bill will soar to a stratospheric £406 billion by the end of the Parliament. Happy spring…






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