Tolga Inanc: Honesty about tough choices is the right way back, the hard way back but probably the only way back

Tolga Inanc is co-chair of Conservative Friends of Turkey.

Kemi Badenoch’s speech at the CSJ last week billed the Conservatives as the only party willing to speak the truth and take the tough decisions.

This narrative is smart. It positions the Conservatives differently to Labour, Lib Dems and Reform. If done right, this messaging can capitalise on public dissatisfaction with Westminster politics.

That dissatisfaction has reached perilous levels – with the latest More in Common polling a country “exhausted, increasingly fragmented and yearning for change.”

Convincing enough voters that the Conservatives can take the tough decisions will be difficult. Political apathy is high – and telling the public to give the Conservatives another go after 14 years risks alienating people who have switched off and are still not ready to listen to the party.

While there is only so long where the 14-year argument works before it starts becoming counter-productive for those using it – the party must not take it as a given that the public will start listening to it now.

The initial downside cost of the ‘speak the truth’ narrative is that it will take time before it converts into any sort of gain for Kemi Badenoch and the Party – whether electorally or in opinion polls.

During that time, as Labour fails to address illegal migration and the cost of living, the allure of trying something different and seeking a political alternative that can speak truth will only work in favour of Reform.

So, for this narrative to yield results, it will need disciplined messaging, deployed strategically where Westminster looks incapable of fixing key issues. And when said, it needs to be convincing – avoiding the mistake of sounding tough on a particular issue one day only to contradict and not stand behind what you said the next day.

Labour’s handling of the Welfare Bill was the latest illustration of politicians looking rudderless and unable to convince voters they can make tough choices.

Despite Reform’s promises – and their ‘magic money tree’ – there are no silver bullets to reduce illegal migration, recalibrate the size of the state, tackle the cost-of-living crisis, and reverse rates of unemployment. There are ingrained, structural realities that make these issues difficult to fix overnight.

Kemi Badenoch’s ‘speak the truth’ and ‘take tough decisions’ messaging must also be backed with a set of bold, credible and relatable policies. Policies which have the common trait of being avoided because they are unpopular and can tangibly improve people’s lives.

Being bold do not need to mean ‘right’ or ‘left’ – it’s clear that map no longer reflects British politics. Nor does it need to resort to dog-whistles or identity politics – the very point about ‘speaking the truth’ is talking about what is fair, sustainable and personal for our communities across the country. It’s about tackling the deep, structural issues which have been put off for too long in pursuit of easier, totemic issues.

Taking tough decisions must include interventions which cut across political divides and are based on the core principles which resonate with the British public – meritocracy, inter-generational fairness, social justice, and individual responsibility. The same principles of Conservativism.

In the current climate where the two main parties have a credibility problem, Labour has the advantage of the chance to deliver results. The jury is still out on that. In opposition, the Conservatives must select a bold alternative and patiently articulate why that is needed for Britain.

Politics is about a battle of ideas – and the best political leaders have been able to bring enough people with them through conviction and credibility, especially for the greater good. Chasing the vocal minority on the fringe risks alienating voters elsewhere.

Much of Starmer’s troubles today stems from that lack of conviction over what he stands for. His ‘change’ narrative has no political or ideological grounding, and his time in Number 10 resembles the tail of the latest polling or focus group wagging the government’s dog.

Some of Kemi Badenoch’s ‘truths’ and ‘tough decisions’ will be unpopular for a vocal minority – that is why they’ve been avoided by politicians for so long. But with enough conviction, discipline, rationale, and leadership, the party who can speak the truth effectively and prove they can take tough decisions may get another hearing from the public soon.