Trump’s First Quarter Resiliency – The American Spectator | USA News and PoliticsThe American Spectator

With his second term’s first quarter just closed, Trump’s ratings are holding remarkably firm. This comes despite his self-created headwinds and his opponents’ manufactured ones. Where Trump’s ratings will go is unclear, but his positioning against Democrats’ leftist elitism argues for continued resiliency. (RELATED: Elitist Libs Remove the ‘Demo’ From the Democrats)

Trump has always been a divisive political figure. Yet, he’s never shied from it and still been quite successful — three consecutive presidential nominations and two presidential wins attest to it. Still, even Trump’s history could not have prepared anyone for his second presidency’s first quarter performance.

Trump’s embrace of disruption would likely have seriously undermined a conventional president’s ratings. But Trump is no conventional president. And his ratings are not responding as convention would predict, especially when measured against Trump’s own baseline.

Trump won the 2024 election with 49.8 percent of the popular vote. According to Real Clear Politics’ April 20 average of national favorability ratings, Trump’s was 45.3 percent (50.8 percent unfavorable). (RELATED: The Democratic Party Is Collapsing)

This seems low until you look at comparisons: it’s still far higher than any national leader in Congress. It’s also just 2.6 percentage points off his Jan. 20, 2025 favorable rating of 47.9 percent (48.1 percent unfavorable), and it’s well ahead of his Jan. 19, 2021 rating of 38 percent (57.7 percent unfavorable) and his Jan. 21, 2017 rating of 41.8 percent (49.9 percent unfavorable).

Trump’s job approval rating is similar. According to RCP’s average of national job approval ratings, Trump’s approval was 46.8 percent (50.5 percent disapproval). That is only 3.7 percentage points below RCP’s first 2025 reading of 50.5 percent approve (44.3 percent disapprove). Again, it’s higher than it was when he left office (41.1 percent versus 56.1 percent disapproval on Jan. 20, 2021) or when he took office in 2017 (43.8 percent approve versus 44.5 percent disapproval on Jan. 20, 2017).

Perhaps an even more telling yardstick is the public’s perception of the direction of the country. According to RCP’s April 20 average of national polling on the direction of the country, 39.8 percent said it was in the right direction, with 52.3 percent in the wrong direction. Once more, this seems low until it’s put in context: on Jan. 18, 2025, just before his inauguration, the split was 27.9 percent right versus 61.5 percent wrong.

Consider, too, that Trump’s numbers come amid strongly negative coverage by the establishment news media. That’s nothing new. During the 2024 election, the Media Research Center determined that establishment media coverage of Trump was 85 percent negative, compared to 78 percent positive for Harris.

Consider as well how Americans are saying they will vote in congressional elections. According to RCP’s April 20 average of national polling on the generic congressional vote, Republicans were at 44.3 percent and Democrats at 45.8 percent. That’s a mere 1.5 percentage point difference. Considering Democrats’ historical advantage in popular votes (because of their lopsided dominance in big population states like California and New York), Republicans expect to trail in generic vote polling.

Consider, too, how Democrats are seeing it. Their announced Senate retirements speak volumes about their perceptions of the Democrat Party’s chances in 2026. Already Dick Durbin (Ill.), Tina Smith (Minn.), Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.), Gary Peters (Mich.), and Michael Bennet (Colo.) have announced they will not be seeking Senate reelection in 2026.

If Democrats saw Trump in freefall with the public and their chances of taking the Senate majority as high, would so many Democrat senators be leaving ahead of a midterm election when Republicans are defending 22 of the 35 seats?

Trump has paid an early price for his disruptions to the status quo. This is particularly so regarding his sweeping trade tariffs. Financial markets don’t like uncertainty or near-term higher costs. Together, these have triggered broad market sell-offs and consumers bracing for higher prices: Trump’s RCP April 20 polling average was only 41.1 percent approval on inflation and just 42.8 percent approval on the economy, both notably below his overall job approval rating.

However, Trump may well have front-loaded the pain from his early disruptions. New trade deals and tariff removals could provide backloaded payoffs. If so, expect his rating numbers to positively reflect it.

Ratings’ daily changes easily obscure the longer trend that Trump has capitalized on. Democrats have shifted dramatically leftward over the last decade. In so doing, they have alienated a large portion of Americans.

Trump has countered Democrats’ leftist elitism with a conservative populism that has altered America’s political terrain. This is the reason for Trump’s resiliency today. It is also why he should not be underestimated over the remainder of his presidency.

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READ MORE from J.T. Young:

The Left’s Heaven is Actually Hell

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J.T. Young is the author of the recent book, Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left, from RealClear Publishing, and has over three decades’ experience working in Congress, the Department of the Treasury, the Office of Management and Budget, and representing a Fortune 20 company.