War With Iran: Justified Strike, Uncertain Horizon | The American Spectator

President Trump has taken us to war with Iran, an entirely justified move considering Iran has been murdering Americans since 1983. With our Israeli allies, we have reportedly struck Iran with a wide variety of weapons, including bombs, Tomahawk cruise missiles, and a host of others.

Before we start hanging “FAFO” celebrations around, we should try to control the speculation about the war because speculation leads to confusion and wrong conclusions.

For example, I saw a video on Saturday morning claiming that about 21 Tomahawk cruise missiles headed toward Tehran. I didn’t count the missiles but the fact is they were apparently flying over a nondescript piece of land that could have been anywhere and they could have been targeted anywhere in the world. I don’t think that the cruise missiles weren’t going to Tehran but until a second source verifies the target, I won’t be convinced.

The Israelis have confirmed that “supreme leader” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian was targeted in the Saturday strikes. So were another 20 or 30 of the top Iranian officials in a meeting that was interrupted by Israeli bombs. President Trump has reportedly been shown a photograph of Khamenei’s body.

Until Pezeshkian is confirmed among the dead, it’s pointless — and possibly wrong — to say that he was killed. Iran’s defense minister and the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps are among the reported dead. Cutting off the head of the snake is part of our strategy.

It’s important to wait 24 to 48 hours — or at least for second-source confirmation — to make any conclusions about who was killed and how many casualties both the U.S. and Israel have suffered.

Meanwhile, the Iranians have copied the media strategy of one of their terrorist proxies, Hamas, in claiming that 40 school-age children were killed in the initial strikes. That’s pure putrid propaganda but it will take until the end of the war to prove or disprove (if it can ever be done).

What we do know is that Iran has tried immediately to ignite a regional conflict and so far without effect. Israel has been hit with dozens of Iranian missiles as have our bases in Qatar (the huge Al Udeid airbase), Bahrain (Fifth Fleet headquarters and the naval forces headquarters attached to Central Command) and the UAE (Al Dhafra airbase and Fujairah naval base). Bahraini, Qatari, and UAE forces may have also been targets but we don’t know if any of the Iranian missiles hit their targets.

Other U.S. bases in Kuwait and Jordan have reportedly also been hit.

It is a prime responsibility of reporters and columnists to get the facts straight. In war, this is almost impossible to do with any speed so the urge to get a scoop that beats the competition is a recipe for getting the facts wrong.

We have to assume that the air strikes — which may not be accompanied by landing forces in Iran — will go on for days, weeks and, possibly, months. Mr. Trump and his administration have also to be prepared for other hotspots — such as Taiwan — which could erupt in days or weeks because other nations will want to take advantage of our preoccupation with Iran. If a war breaks out over Taiwan, it’s highly questionable whether we can cope with that while operations are going on in Iran. Russian President Putin will be tempted to try to push his luck in Ukraine.

Chinese intervention is also possible if we bomb Iran’s principal oil export facility at Kharg Island. If we hit Kharg Island quickly, we could cripple both Iran’s and China’s economies. It would be entirely worthwhile to do so but there are risks.

Mr. Trump has indicated that regime change in Iran is his — and our Israeli allies’ — goal. That will take more than air strikes to accomplish.

Who will govern Iran after the ayatollahs’ regime falls? It could be the son of the late Shah, Reza Pahlavi. The National Council of Resistance of Iran — Maryam Rajavi’s group — has little following in Iran but, because they are dedicated to democracy, it might be wise for Mr. Pahlavi to include them in his government, if there is one.

Both China and Russia — and the remnants of the ayatollahs’ regime — will want to have influence over that question. It may or may not be up to us to choose who governs Iran after the ayatollahs. One nation or another may want to offer the ayatollahs and their regime sanctuary in the hope they can regain power. Again, it’s useless to speculate at this point.

The outcome of this war is certainly in doubt despite the overwhelming force we and the Israelis have brought to bear. Speculation, as I said, is useless now. All it can lead to is confusion.

READ MORE from Jed Babbin:

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The Decline of Trust in the News

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