We are all in a marathon one way or another. It’s long, hard work and the real result won’t come this week

This morning belongs to the ‘children of Pheidippides’ – or at least it does in my neck of the woods.

The London marathon is a huge national sporting event, for some. For others it’s something they are aware of but don’t really think about that much. For me it’s become something of an annual ritual, one that I chose by accident.

I live along the route. Every runner bar the elites will have run past my house this morning. We always go out and watch. This isn’t because we are runners, or big fans of running, but because being so close to the course there’s not much you can do. For about six or seven hours each year we are rather hemmed in. Domestically kettled, you might say.

However thinking about the event this year, which in political circles had the pre-race frisson of Robert Jenrick’s sponsorship WhatsApp group getting journalists all excited that they’d stumbled on some scoop, I’ve realised politics and Marathons have a lot more in common than you’d think, particularly now.

First, at a general level it’s a lot of people doing something that’s good for them, they all enjoy it even if they aren’t obliged to like each other and are very often doing it for a good cause to try and make other people’s lives better. But that’s just the general link. To specifics.

The Tories are running in a marathon, right now. They’ve been struggling after what can only be described as a Paula Radcliffe-esque catastrophe. Elite winners so often, last year at the ballot box they suffered her 2004 Olympic nightmare in Athens (of all places) where she dropped out of the marathon altogether with exhaustion. She did go on to win many times after (just saying).

The verdict of traditional Conservative supporters, many of whom have run away, is still not totally clear, but Kemi Badenoch is trying ‘under new leadership’ to ensure the left foot and the right foot of the party actually run together in sync. She’s trying to build resilience, rebuild a team support structure and trying to get the party to go from staggering down the road to keeping in an even steady pace.

Robert Jenrick is also running a marathon, not just the one he actually is running today, but politically. The over-excitable Westminster bubble watchers will tell you he’s about to bring down his rival front runner – and please note, Labour will happily feed that narrative. He isn’t.

Oh he’d like to be out in front on his own, no doubt of it, but he’s not about to swipe out a leg to trip up his current boss of whom he said this week:

“Frankly, I think she’s doing a bloody good job in difficult circumstances. You know, it’s not easy being leader of the opposition when we’ve just lost our worst ever election defeat.”

There’s a difference between working towards something and actively trying to remove a rival. As observers we should always bear in mind the former just isn’t as good a story as the latter.

Why does any of this matter?

Because there’s a new kid on the block. Well, actually it’s an old kid in new kit but that doesn’t much matter – because they have set off at such a pace, that as the Tories struggle and stagger, and Labour drift into a surprisingly leaden walk, this new lot are busting their lungs, blowing hard, and striding forward at break neck speed.

Truth is, Reform have been sprinting since last summer, with an understandable  “look at me go” attitude to any gap created. The gap has not really been as large as they like to suggest but they’ve at least asserted their rights to ‘elite athlete’ status. Even if they did chuck one of their better runners under a passing bus.

The big test comes this week, and the media, in their hunger for the agreed narrative, and the inside track, is: the Tories will stumble badly, Labour will get a bad smack in the shins, and Reform will really demonstrate that that voter gap between them and the rest exists, in local government terms at the very least. Given the great result the Tories posted last time round, I think the evidence is there that Thursday is that Friday is not going to see Conservative celebration, but dug in defence and possible small revisions of the overall battle plan.

Then there’s the guy in the ‘is it yellow, is it orange?” running suit and some form of attention grabbing silly hat. Being videoed, of course, but is actually a lot quicker than some like to think. The others always seem to forget he’s even in the race, but since that team ran on a joint ticket with the Tories, The Lib Dems are farther along in their own ‘recovery Marathon’ than the Conservatives are.

The still forgotten runners are that gaggle in green, but that’s partly because spectators mistake them for street protestors rather than actual road runners.

There is a long distance warning in trying to read to much into next Friday’s results.

This is not the race, it’s a stage of the race, and an early stage at that. Reform have to maintain their pace, and over two or three more years that’s hard. The Conservatives have to get their head down, nose forward and just grind until they are on the heels of the others or realise they aren’t going to catch them.

Can they be the tortoise to the Reform hare? I don’t know but I do know it’s a daft time right now to be talking about who might give who a piggy-back nearer the finish line.

Labour’s race is actually harder. I know, as it’s a race I’ve run myself, and it doesn’t get easier in government over time. This time last year they looked sleek and fit, and the Tories looked dull and tired. They said the right things, and whilst they never really explained much about their race strategy – they romped home in the biggest national event in July last year.

They still run with a strut in their steps, but everyone can see their footwork is nervy and muddled, the colour of the strip has definitely faded, and there’s more than a few questions over their sponsor. It’s just not turned out to be the race anyone thought they’d run. They’ve disappointed. That’s never meant they can’t win the overall race,  again, just that it will never be that convincing victory they had the year their Tory rivals collapsed by the side of the road in a battered and broken heap.

Why they they chose to race in the summer, six months before training needed to end, will never stop being a question for me.

Finally, now, we the commentators, the race officials, the all important fans, are in our own political marathon. The whole course, conditions and continuity is changing before our eyes, which may suit other new runners than the ones we think we know, or are just getting to know. There are old champions we might yearn for, but I don’t think they are coming back. The race changes, and changes quickly, but still goes on.

We’ve never collectively been in more unpredictable political times, but I will keep reminding people, especially my friends and colleagues in the media: this race has a long long way to go, and nothing is certain about the what finish line results will be in four year’s time.

As the loud speakers from the real Marathon start line are starting to play music …the song “Keep on running” blares out.