What can the Tories take from this by-election?

The Greens have won the Gorton and Denton by-election with 41 per cent of the vote, as Labour were pushed into third place by Reform UK. A near three-way split had been talked up ahead of the polls closing but the Green’s Hannah Denton came well ahead of Reform on 29 per cent and Labour on 25 per cent.

It is an embarrassing result for Labour who saw their vote halved since the election, as Sir Keir Starmer blocked Andy Burnham from standing – the one candidate who would’ve kept that seat for the party. In seeking to prove that only Labour can “Stop Reform”, Starmer may instead have demonstrated that the Greens can do so – and with rather more enthusiasm.

Their win undermines the ‘wasted vote’ argument that Labour has been used to falling back on. With the Greens already in second place in 39 Labour seats, that is a very precarious situation, especially with a big set of local elections around the corner in May.

The Prime Minister even broke with usual by-election convention to campaign in the seat himself earlier this week as a last act of desperation. It’s not a good look to have actually put people off, but it proves the argument the Tories have been spinning already: this illustrates a fundamentally damaged Starmer.

All this will do in Labour is to add just another reason to move against his leadership, towards someone like Angela Rayner (or Andy Burnham if he ever gets a seat – could Starmer really block him again after this …?) given the new traction of lefty-eco-populism.

The Tories will be happy that some of the wind has been taken out of Farage’s sails with this by-election result. Instead of choosing a local candidate, Reform plumped for one of their more well-known, supposedly ‘national’ figures in Matt Goodwin, but the gamble didn’t pay off. A divisive figure likely motivated a higher progressive voter and put off some wavering Reform supporters. Still such a turnout for this part of Manchester is not to be dismissed. Yes talk of a real three way split wasn’t met, and depending on a fractured left wasn’t good enough for Reform, but 29 per cent is significant.

This by-election was never really about the Conservative Party. Despite a decent candidate in the former police officer Charlotte Cadden they came in fourth, losing their deposit with only 1.9 per cent of the vote – their worst ever by-election result (and down more than 2,000 votes since the general election … where have they gone?). But as one Tory joked: “We raised more than £13m last year. That is a lot of deposits.”

Anyway, the party hadn’t made the journey up to see the results as they had decamped to a lakeside hotel in Buckinghamshire for their away day. As the count was ongoing, Tory MPs and shadow cabinet members were belting karaoke songs, hearing from guest speaker Nick Ferrari and entertaining one another with impressions (I’m told newbie Lincoln Jopp was the real showman and did his best impersonation of colleague Broxbourne MP Lewis Cocking to applause from the entire cohort of Tory MPs).

Their away day began with an address from Kemi Badenoch where she made the case for renewed positivity – something echoed by head of CCHQ Mark McInnes later in the day.

I’m told he spoke of three bands the party is targeting, totalling 10 million voters (Boris Johnson’s Tories got 13.9 million in 2019) – they include core conservatives (who especially like that upbeat messaging), traditional conservatives (who are values based and economically driven) and swing cons/reform (who prefer the Tories to everything else except Reform, who they are undecided on).

The attack line the party is pushing is to say Reform is “a one man band” – some of this target group like Farage and don’t appreciate direct attacks, but this works as almost a backhanded compliment, speaking to the concerns they do have about Reform running government.

Training sessions were held yesterday – including ones on national campaigns, hosted by Katie Lam, who made a point about message discipline; using social media from Robbie Moore and Louie French; Greg Stafford on how to beat the Liberal Democrats; and a panel on how to beat Reform – with further policy breakouts set to take place today, hosted by members of the shadow cabinet.

There may be some positivity given the by-election result. Talk to any Conservative MP or party official and they are disturbed by the Green Party’s sectarian campaigning tactics – this is no endorsement of that – but as a political outcome, as Peter Franklin argued in January for us, this could be the best of a bad bunch.

Starmer’s cowardice has not been vindicated and Labour could see a meltdown of the left. Farage is not provided with any extra momentum that Badenoch has gained on him over the past six months.

But there is a real worrying prospect of some sort of future rainbow coalition government that could form in the future. Perhaps, as Franklin wrote, it will concentrate minds on the right.

The Greens have never had more than 10.2 per cent in a by-election before. The bounce they are having is clearly real. Compare this to the three main parties who took less than 30 per cent combined – it is the first parliamentary by-election in modern history where neither the Tories or Labour were in the top two. The field is changing and, while it wasn’t the Tories feeling the direct effects today, the party needs to be prepared.