Winning the argument over the One Big Beautiful Bill

Republicans have an enormous opportunity to convince the American people that the One Big Beautiful Bill was good for Americans – and that those who opposed it voted against the values and goals of the American people.

Two recent polls by the Winston Group and America’s New Majority Project prove that the Republican budget package attracts a substantial majority of Americans when they understand it. Opposition to the bill should become a major burden for Democrats.

It is vital that Republicans win the argument over this crucial legislation. While it has already become law, the OBBB will likely be the biggest legislative achievement of the Trump administration before the 2026 election.

Republicans are lucky that the more people know about the OBBB, the more likely they are to be for it. The Democrats have the opposite problem. The more Americans know about the bill, the angrier they will be at Democrats for opposing it.

This is a classic example of Democrat consultant Joseph Napolitan’s principle that you should never underestimate the intelligence of the American people nor overestimate the amount of information they have.

The Democrats, their propaganda media allies, and leftwing activist groups have been lying about the bill and creating a false impression of what it does. This is potentially an enormous advantage for Republicans. It means the more the facts come out, the more the Democrats will be discredited, and their arguments will collapse.

Consider the Winston Group’s optimistic and positive analysis after its Aug. 30 – Sept. 1 poll. It described the “key belief” that determines support for the budget bill.

According to the Winston Group, people who know the bill prevented a tax increase on them and their families support the bill by more than 3:1 (74 percent favor, while 22 percent oppose). Those who do not know the bill prevented a tax increase oppose it by nearly the same ratio (72 percent who opposed to 24 percent who supported).

Unfortunately, Democrats and their propaganda media allies have falsely convinced 48 percent of the country that the bill did not prevent a tax increase. Only 33 percent of Americans know they were saved from higher taxes. An aggressive and consistent education campaign could rapidly shift the 48 percent to favor the bill.

The Winston Group’s finding exactly follows America’s New Majority Project’s analysis. When voters were asked to choose between a Republican who voted to stop the largest tax increase in history and a Democrat who favored it, support for the Republican jumped 17 percent.

Other explanations of the bill were simply not as powerful. Describing the bill as the largest tax cut in American history only led to a 5-point gain. Saying it extended the Trump tax cuts of 2017 only led to a 2-point gain.

Every day, Republicans should drive home that without the OBBB, everyone’s taxes were going to go up – and Americans were going to suffer from the largest tax increase in history. They should also make clear that the Democrats essentially voted for a giant tax increase. Every member and candidate – as well as the President, Vice President, Cabinet, and the entire administration – should saturate their communications with these messages.

Every month, Republicans should measure how well the message is getting through to Americans.

America’s New Majority Project’s poll also produced a series of winning arguments about specifics in the bill. While these are less important than the tax increase argument, they give Republicans strong talking points further bolstering their votes – and explaining why the Democrats’ opposition would have harmed Americans.

First, the OBBB eliminated taxes on tips and overtime pay. It expanded the child tax credit, cut taxes for seniors, and incentivized U.S. manufacturing. These facts boost GOP support by 17 points.

Second, the law increased eligibility for tax-free health savings accounts and expanded what they cover. This fact also provides Republicans with a 17-point boost in support.

Third, the bill allowed Pell Grants to be used for job-training programs at community colleges. This fact drives a 19-point jump in support for Republicans.

Fourth, the OBBB strengthened Medicaid. It tightened eligibility verification standards and required states to contribute their fair share. It focused resources on poor mothers, children, and the disabled. And it encouraged able-bodied recipients to work.

Despite Democrats’ claims that the law was bad for Medicaid, funding for the program will still increase by 31 percent by 2036 under the law ($200 billion). Earlier polling by ANMP revealed that after seeing pre- and post-OBBB Medicaid spending projections, only 14 percent of voters described the law as a cut, while 30 percent described it as an increase. Thirty-five percent said it “slows the growth” of Medicaid spending.

Also, when asked about lower spending levels due to work requirements, 53 percent considered them savings for safety-net programs, while just 25 percent called them cuts.

If Republicans will slow down enough to learn these arguments, they can win the fight to define the OBBB as positive or negative for Americans.

If the truth is driven home for Americans – and Democrats are forced to answer for their opposition – then the policy and values choice of 2026 will be clear. It will be good for the GOP and a nightmare for Democrats.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.