YouGov MRP Predicts Political Extinction of Tories on Just 46 Seats – Guido Fawkes

YouGov MRP Predicts Political Extinction of Tories on Just 46 Seats

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A fresh MRP from YouGov – their first since the general election – has Reform the largest party in a hung parliament with a projected 271 MPs. Labour would slump to just 178 seats – losing 233 MPs in the process. But the real story is the Tories…

On this outcome the Conservatives would cling on to just 46 MPs – not enough to operate as any kind of viable political force. Of the current 119 Tory MPs, 73 would lose their seats, mostly to Reform. The fieldwork ran from 29 May to 18 June – a period during which the Tories have made little impact. Ouch..

Patrick English, director of political analytics at YouGov, said:

“Just a year since Labour’s election landslide, the party is on course to win fewer seats than it did in 2019. That a clear majority would now vote for someone other than the two established main parties of British politics is a striking marker of just how far the fragmentation of the voting public has gone over the past decade.”

Guido reminds co-conspirators that our own whiteboard method outperformed every single final MRP from the pollsters last time round, and it is still early in the election cycle. Nevertheless, the Tories are now looking down the barrel of total political extinction…