Putin’s Stalemate, Trump’s Moment | The American Spectator

It is now 15 months since President Trump began his vigorous personal diplomacy to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Yet, we are nowhere near an end to Russia’s war of aggression.

The tools that President Trump has used — his personal relationship with Vladimir Putin, coupled with the promise of economic and investment incentives for the Russian economy — have been met by stolid resistance. Indeed, since Trump came to office, Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian civilians and non-military targets far from the front have significantly intensified.

The failure to end Russia’s war means that the president remains far from his aim of cementing his legacy as a leader who uses U.S. power to resolve conflicts and remove global threats. (RELATED: A World Still at War)

Yet, paradoxically, Trump has a rare opportunity to turn the tide and achieve his long-sought aim. For Russia today is uniquely vulnerable to U.S. and allied pressure as it is mired in a forever war and in the midst of a deepening economic crisis that threatens to diminish Russia’s status as a major regional power. (RELATED: Russia’s Vulnerabilities and Trump’s Chance for Peace in Ukraine)

On the military front, Putin is facing not only severe resistance but territorial setbacks. In the first months of 2026, Ukraine has taken more territory from the Russians than Russia has captured from Ukraine. Analysis from the well-regarded Institute for the Study of War suggests that this stasis is likely to continue and that no serious Russian military breakthroughs or major gains will be forthcoming during Moscow’s much-vaunted spring offensive. Nor is Putin’s singular advantage — his ability to strike at Ukraine’s industrial, energy, and transport infrastructure — likely to persist.

Ukraine is already wreaking havoc on Russian oil refineries, aircraft bases, and the prospect that such attacks will accelerate is growing. Ukraine is today making major gains toward the revival of its long-range missile capabilities, and the privately produced Flamingo is a newly developed Ukrainian long-range attack drone with high precision and enhanced stealth, capable of reaching up to 2,000 miles. Ukraine’s more longstanding Palianytsia missile drone is already regularly attacking Russian airbases and military depots. (RELATED: Time May No Longer Be on Putin’s Side)

Ukraine’s technological prowess and the rapidity and efficiency with which it produces weapons have been noticed by Europe as it seeks to ramp up its defenses. As a result, Ukraine’s private and state military industrial complex has projects underway with Germany, Denmark, Poland, and the Baltic states — and their number is increasing. Billions of European dollars are being poured into these joint ventures, and the investments will bear fruit in the months and years to come. Ukraine’s drone warfare and defense innovations have also opened the door to economic cooperation with the Gulf countries, which are being assisted by Ukrainian experts to fend off Iran’s recent attacks. This will likely be the source of more funding for Ukraine to ramp up defense production. (RELATED: On the Frontlines of the War That Will Change Europe)

All in all, a picture that does not suggest that Putin’s ambitions to occupy additional large swaths of Ukrainian territory or bring about the collapse of the Ukrainian state are achievable aims.

And while there has been little progress on the military front, the Russian economy is also in a steep long-term decline. Last year, the Russian GDP “grew” at around half a percent. Now, even with a short-term influx of cash as a result of the energy price spike driven by war with Iran, Russia’s economy is facing a steep downturn. At the recent Moscow Economic Forum (April 12), economists predict that even amid the spike in oil prices, Russia’s economy will contract by more than 2 percent this year. This process is likely to continue as a result of growing industrial decline, a drop in investments, declining personal consumption as a result of steep inflation, and manpower shortages.

In the brutally honest assessment of Nikolai Arefiev, First Deputy Head of the Economic Policy  Committee of the Russian Duma: “The Russian economy has been ruined; this year there will be a ‘terrible drop in production,’ and citizens will begin to mass-withdraw money from accounts.”

Indeed, some Russian economists are predicting a decline in consumer spending of well more than ten percent this year, a sign of a steep decline in living standards.

The Kremlin feels this vulnerability. That is why it has begun trying to wrest total control of the internet by blocking access to YouTube and WhatsApp, and by encouraging Russians to abandon highly popular apps and communications protocols such as Telegram. Major Russian cities are now also seeing frequent long-term blackouts of mobile services, which many see as a part of an effort to test controls that may be needed if the economic downturn and the rising Russian wartime death toll spark public discontent.

On top of all this, Western sanctions and a brain drain of talented technologists who fear wartime mobilization and now live in Serbia, Turkey, or the Emirates are stymying Russia’s ability to innovate in the technology sector, leaving it nowhere to be seen in the global AI and robotics race. The Russian “brain drain” is massive. Since the war began, nearly a million Russians, many of them young men, have left the country. Over 100,000 Russians have settled in Turkey; an estimated 150,000 are now resident in Serbia — the bulk of them in Belgrade — and a further 100,000 are establishing residence in neighboring Montenegro.

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Israel saw 50,000 Russians arrive, a steep increase from past years, and there has been a large influx of talented technicians and programmers entering the United Arab Emirates. The losses to Russia’s high-tech sector are enormous. And while many young male programmers and technologists fled to avoid potential military conscription, additional severe restrictions on the internet and private communications apps are likely to drive many more technologists and entrepreneurs to leave. In short, Russia is losing a large portion of its technological sector. Moreover, the country is nowhere to be seen in the Artificial Intelligence economy.

Today, Russia is making few contributions to the global technological revolution. By contrast, Russian companies and innovators are helping drive economic growth outside of Russia. One such case is Yandex, once a Russian search engine that, now, as the Dutch-based Nebius Group, has become an economic powerhouse (with a current market cap of nearly $ 40 billion), creating massive wealth-generating huge tax revenues, and spurring technological growth inside the E.U.

In short, a wartime deadlock, a sputtering economy, a moribund tech sector, and growing worries of potential public discontent over declining living standards all suggest now is the perfect time for President Trump to intensify pressure and help Ukraine intensify military pressure on Russia. As the failure of peace efforts based on personal relationships and economic incentives shows, such pressure is the only way to achieve the president’s aim of bringing an end to the war. And such pressure would also be an appropriate response to the Kremlin’s provision to Iran of targeting intelligence, drone components, and even drones that today strike at U.S. forces and our allies.

John Herbst is a former U.S Ambassador to Ukraine, and currently the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, where Adrian Karatnycky, author of Battleground Ukraine (Yale), is a senior fellow.